Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton match stats & report
2–1 Full time
Milton Keynes Dons stats & fixtures · Luton stats & fixtures
Milton Keynes Dons beat Luton 2–1 in League One on 17 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.53–1.84. Luton had 62% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Milton Keynes Dons 24%, the draw 25% and Luton 51%.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton match statistics
- 38% Ball possession 62%
- 1.53 Expected goals (xG) 1.84
- 11 Total shots 25
- 3 Shots on target 5
- 6 Shots off target 10
- 2 Blocked shots 10
- 6 Shots inside the box 16
- 5 Corners 6
- 11 Fouls 13
- 2 Offsides 0
- 2 Yellow cards 0
- 0 Red cards 0
- 265 Passes 447
- 5 Goalkeeper saves 1
Goals and cards
- 25' Goal A. Gilbey Milton Keynes Dons
- 57' Yellow card R. Wintle Milton Keynes Dons
- 64' Yellow card A. Gilbey Milton Keynes Dons
- 70' Goal J. Clark (assist T. Mendel-Idowu) Luton
- 79' Penalty scored A. Collins Milton Keynes Dons
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 24%Milton Keynes Dons fair odds 4.10
- 25%Draw fair odds 4.04
- 51%Luton fair odds 1.97
Most likely score 1-1 (11.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.68 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 2.72 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 5.07 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.47 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| Both teams to score: No | 39% | 2.56 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.0
Milton Keynes Dons 5.0 · Luton 5.9
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 9.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 10.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 11.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 12.5 | 32% | 68% |
Expected cards: 3.8
Milton Keynes Dons 2.1 · Luton 1.8
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 4.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 5.5 | 20% | 80% |
Expected shots on target: 8.6
Milton Keynes Dons 3.6 · Luton 5.0
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 7.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 8.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 9.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 10.5 | 26% | 74% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (523 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.5%
- 1–2 10.0%
- 0–2 7.9%
- 0–1 7.4%
- 2–1 6.4%
- 1–3 6.0%
- 0–0 5.8%
- 2–2 5.8%
Team news & lineups
Milton Keynes Dons
Bench B. Wiles , J. Matete , G. Jones , D. Crowley , C. Bramall , D. Barlaser , S. Stacey
Luton
Bench D. Cole , J. Johnson , I. Jones , Joshua Keeley , C. Marshall , J. Richards , Emilio Lawrence
Form guide
Milton Keynes Dons at home
5–4–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 4.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.1 per game
21% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Luton away
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 4.9 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.6 per game
26% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.32 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 29% | 3.46 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 28% | 3.59 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 76% | 1.32 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 55% | 1.82 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 84% | 1.19 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 89% | 1.12 |
| Home/Away double chance | 75% | 1.33 |
| Away clean sheet | 29% | 3.44 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 35% | 2.85 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.04 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 49% | 2.04 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 13% | 7.72 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.10 |
| Home clean sheet | 16% | 6.31 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 11% | 9.35 |