The Ghost Record
Chain
Intact — the latest 1,000 of 5,272 lines verified
A line is a call, or the result written beside it. The latest are walked again each time this page is made, and you can check them yourself: each line's hash is SHA-256 of the previous hash and the line's own contents.
Record
- 49% win rate
- -1.6% ROI at published prices
- 0.192 Brier score
2,566 settled · 14 still running · 48 void, matches called off · log loss 0.564
ROI is a flat stake at the best price we held when the call was published, not at the closing price — settling at the close would credit the Ghost for moves it predicted rather than beat. A Brier score is 0 at perfect and 0.25 at coin-flipping.
Against the market, on the 2,322 calls the bookmakers priced at the close: the Ghost's Brier score is 0.203 and the market's 0.197. Lower is better, so the market has been the more accurate.
Calibration
A model that says 70% must be right about 70% of the time.
| Band | Calls | Said | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | 171 | 7% | 5% |
| 10%–20% | 178 | 15% | 10% |
| 20%–30% | 201 | 26% | 15% |
| 30%–40% | 202 | 35% | 34% |
| 40%–50% | 395 | 46% | 45% |
| 50%–60% | 421 | 55% | 54% |
| 60%–70% | 328 | 65% | 67% |
| 70%–80% | 534 | 73% | 73% |
| 80%–90% | 112 | 85% | 86% |
| 90%–100% | 24 | 93% | 96% |
Recent calls
| # | Match | Call | Said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5268 | Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal | Seattle Sounders match result | 58% | Lost 1-1 |
| 5269 | San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC | Either team to win double chance | 74% | Lost 1-1 |
| 5270 | Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego | Los Angeles Galaxy match result | 48% | Lost 2-2 |
| 5271 | Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids | Either team to win double chance | 74% | Lost 0-0 |
| 5272 | Cruz Azul v FC Juarez | Cruz Azul match result | 73% | Won 5-0 |
| 5252 | Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas | Either team to win double chance | 72% | Lost 2-2 |
| 5253 | Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake | Either team to win double chance | 76% | Won 1-3 |
| 5254 | Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps | Vancouver Whitecaps match result | 64% | Won 1-2 |
| 5255 | Toluca v Atletico San Luis | Toluca match result | 68% | Lost 1-1 |
| 5256 | Leon v Club America | Club America match result | 46% | Won 3-5 |
| 5257 | Independiente Medellin v Once Caldas | Independiente Medellin match result | 53% | Lost 0-2 |
| 5246 | Orlando City SC v DC United | Orlando City SC match result | 55% | Won 4-1 |
| 5247 | New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC | New York Red Bulls match result | 52% | Lost 0-2 |
| 5248 | New York City FC v Los Angeles FC | Either team to win double chance | 72% | Lost 1-1 |
| 5249 | Atlanta United FC v Inter Miami | Inter Miami match result | 45% | Won 1-3 |
| 5250 | New England Revolution v Chicago Fire | Either team to win double chance | 75% | Won 1-0 |
| 5251 | Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama | Sao Paulo or draw double chance | 72% | Won 1-0 |
| 5238 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | Either team to win double chance | 71% | Won 0-2 |
| 5239 | Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro | Either team to win double chance | 73% | Won 5-0 |
| 5240 | Guadalajara Chivas v Tigres UANL | Guadalajara Chivas match result | 48% | Lost 1-1 |
| 5241 | Guadalajara Chivas v Tigres UANL | Tigres UANL match result | 24% | Lost 1-1 |
| 5242 | Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia M. | Velez Sarsfield match result | 47% | Won 1-0 |
| 5243 | Atletico Tucuman v Rosario Central | Rosario Central or draw double chance | 76% | Won 2-3 |
| 5244 | Atletico Tucuman v Rosario Central | Rosario Central match result | 41% | Won 2-3 |
| 5245 | Millonarios v Jaguares | Millonarios match result | 71% | Won 4-1 |
| 5236 | Olimpia v 2 de Mayo | Olimpia or draw double chance | 75% | Won 3-0 |
| 5231 | Minnesota United FC v St. Louis City | Either team to win double chance | 75% | Won 3-2 |
| 5232 | Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc | Botafogo match result | 68% | Won 1-0 |
| 5233 | Atletico-MG v Coritiba | Atletico-MG match result | 64% | Won 1-0 |
| 5234 | Aucas v LDU de Quito | Aucas or draw double chance | 74% | Won 1-1 |
| 5235 | America Mineiro v Operario-PR | America Mineiro or draw double chance | 69% | Won 1-0 |
| 5224 | Ceara v Juventude | Juventude or draw double chance | 67% | Won 2-2 |
| 5225 | Independ. Rivadavia v Tigre | Independ. Rivadavia match result | 45% | Lost 2-2 |
| 5226 | Platense v Lanus | Lanus or draw double chance | 71% | Won 0-1 |
| 5227 | Club Guarani v Nacional Asuncion | Nacional Asuncion or draw double chance | 69% | Won 0-2 |
| 5228 | Chico v Atletico Nacional | Atletico Nacional match result | 59% | Won 1-4 |
| 5229 | Difaa EL Jadida v Moghreb Tetouan | Difaa EL Jadida or draw double chance | 73% | Won 4-1 |
| 5209 | Philadelphia Union v Charlotte | Philadelphia Union match result | 63% | Lost 2-2 |
| 5210 | Rapid v Corvinul Hunedoara | Rapid match result | 53% | Won 2-0 |
| 5211 | Lille v Stade Brestois 29 | Lille match result | 53% | Lost 1-1 |
| 5212 | Estac Troyes v Lens | Lens match result | 54% | Won 1-3 |
| 5213 | Estac Troyes v Lens | Under 2.5 goals goals | 42% | Lost 1-3 |
| 5214 | Estac Troyes v Lens | Under 3.5 goals goals | 64% | Lost 1-3 |
| 5215 | Estac Troyes v Lens | Under 4.5 goals goals | 81% | Won 1-3 |
| 5216 | AS Roma v Genoa | AS Roma match result | 62% | Won 2-0 |
| 5217 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | Sparta Rotterdam match result | 57% | Won 3-2 |
| 5218 | Valencia v Athletic Club | Either team to win double chance | 69% | Lost 0-0 |
| 5219 | Las Palmas v Castellón | Either team to win double chance | 72% | Won 0-3 |
| 5220 | Macara v Independiente del Valle | Either team to win double chance | 71% | Won 1-0 |
| 5221 | Macara v Independiente del Valle | Macara match result | 34% | Won 1-0 |