Luton vs Doncaster match stats & report

Luton vs Doncaster match statistics

• 53% Ball possession 47%
• 2.25 Expected goals (xG) 1.08
• 18 Total shots 12
• 7 Shots on target 2
• 6 Shots off target 5
• 5 Blocked shots 5
• 14 Shots inside the box 10
• 5 Corners 5
• 10 Fouls 12
• 2 Offsides 1
• 1 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 444 Passes 395
• 1 Goalkeeper saves 4

Goals and cards

1. 11' Yellow card J. Sterry Doncaster
2. 30' Yellow card J. Donley Luton
3. 44' Penalty scored C. Marshall Luton
4. 51' Goal J. Donley (assist J. Richards) Luton
5. 60' Yellow card O. Bailey Doncaster
6. 72' Goal J. Donley Luton
7. 84' Goal B. McCann (assist H. Clifton) Doncaster
8. 90+3' Yellow card J. Thomas Doncaster

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Luton to score about 0.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 22% in this competition.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.22× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Confirmed elevens: Luton at 94% of full strength, Doncaster at 81%. In the numbers
• Last 2 meetings: Luton won 1, 1 drawn, Doncaster won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Luton is new to this competition: rated from 57 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
• Doncaster is new to this competition: rated from 57 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Luton attack scores 14% more than average, against Doncaster defence, which lets in 3% more than average: 1.71 goals (an average side here: 1.45)
• Doncaster attack scores 13% less than average, against Luton defence, which lets in about the average: 1.05 goals (an average side here: 1.20)

Blended with the chances each side creates (shots on target, and xG where it is recorded) and adjusted for the players selected, the call rests on Luton 1.76, Doncaster 1.09.

Ratings from 57 matches for Luton and 57 for Doncaster, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Luton score 2 a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.
• Luton win 7.5 corners a game — 79th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 11.3

Luton 7.3 · Doncaster 4.0

Expected cards: 4.1

Luton 1.6 · Doncaster 2.5

Expected shots on target: 8.4

Luton 4.8 · Doncaster 3.6

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (535 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.6%
2. 2–1 10.4%
3. 1–0 9.7%
4. 2–0 9.2%
5. 0–0 6.5%
6. 3–1 5.9%
7. 1–2 5.9%
8. 3–0 5.2%