France vs Italy match stats & report
1–1 Full time
France drew with Italy 1–1 in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 3) on 2 October 2026. France had 65% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave France 59%, the draw 24% and Italy 18%.
France vs Italy match statistics
- 65% Ball possession 35%
- 18 Total shots 14
- 8 Shots on target 2
- 4 Shots off target 6
- 6 Blocked shots 6
- 8 Shots inside the box 10
- 6 Corners 4
- 9 Fouls 10
- 1 Offsides 3
- 0 Yellow cards 4
- 1 Red cards 0
- 725 Passes 391
- 1 Goalkeeper saves 7
Goals and cards
- 54' Yellow card N. Fagioli Italy
- 55' Goal M. Olise (assist R. Cherki) France
- 68' Goal A. Bastoni Italy
- 73' Yellow card D. Upamecano France
- 73' Yellow card M. Kean Italy
- 82' Yellow card A. Vergara Italy
- 85' Red card D. Upamecano France
- 90+2' Yellow card A. Bastoni Italy
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 59%France fair odds 1.71
- 24%Draw fair odds 4.20
- 18%Italy fair odds 5.70
Most likely score 1-1 (11.2%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.79 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.28 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 16.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score: No | 43% | 2.32 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.5
France 4.8 · Italy 3.6
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 7.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 8.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 9.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 10.5 | 24% | 76% |
Expected cards: 3.3
France 1.6 · Italy 1.7
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 5.5 | 13% | 87% |
Expected shots on target: 7.9
France 4.9 · Italy 2.9
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 6.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 7.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 8.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 9.5 | 27% | 73% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4507 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.2%
- 2–1 10.0%
- 2–0 9.7%
- 1–0 8.4%
- 3–1 6.6%
- 3–0 6.5%
- 0–0 6.1%
- 2–2 5.1%
Team news & lineups
France
Bench B. Barcola , J. Butez , E. Camavinga , A. Diouf , M. Kone , J. Koundé , M. Lacroix , E. Lepaul , G. Restes , L. Yoro , M. Akliouche
Italy
Bench G. Di Lorenzo , N. Barella , Marco Carnesecchi , I. Doumbia , D. Maldini , G. Mancini , M. Ruggeri , Gianluca Scamacca , A. Vergara , G. Vicario , M. Zoma , S. Ricci
Form guide
France at home
6–1–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 6.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 7.2 per game
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Italy away
5–1–0 in 6 matches
- Scored
- 2.0 per game
- Conceded
- 0.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 6
- Corners
- 6.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.7 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 6 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
France vs Italy head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Italy v France | 1–3 | |
| France v Italy | 1–3 | |
| France v Italy | 3–1 |
Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 41% | 2.42 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 64% | 1.57 |
| Away clean sheet | 14% | 7.39 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 18% | 5.70 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 27% | 3.65 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 93% | 1.07 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 86% | 1.16 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 82% | 1.21 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 11.71 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 82% | 1.21 |
| Home/Away double chance | 76% | 1.31 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 59% | 1.71 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 59% | 1.68 |
| Home clean sheet | 36% | 2.79 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 7% | 15.01 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 36% | 2.76 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 32% | 3.09 |