St. Mirren U21 vs Peterhead prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects St. Mirren U21 to score about 0.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• St. Mirren U21 has had 18 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (9%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• St. Mirren U21 has a new coach, Peter William Hartley, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• St. Mirren U21 attack scores 28% more than average, against Peterhead defence, which lets in 30% fewer than average: 2.00 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
• Peterhead attack scores 5% less than average, against St. Mirren U21 defence, which lets in about the average: 1.75 goals (an average side here: 1.87)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on St. Mirren U21 2.04, Peterhead 1.71.

Ratings from 13 matches for St. Mirren U21 and 142 for Peterhead, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Peterhead have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 9.3%
2. 2–1 8.4%
3. 2–2 7.2%
4. 1–2 7.0%
5. 3–1 5.7%
6. 2–0 4.9%
7. 3–2 4.9%
8. 2–3 4.1%