Stenhousemuir vs Berwick Rangers prediction, stats & H2H
Stenhousemuir stats & fixtures · Berwick Rangers stats & fixtures
Stenhousemuir take on Berwick Rangers in the Challenge Cup (Round of 32) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Stenhousemuir favourites at 88%, with the draw at 10%. The likeliest score is 2–0, at 15.1%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 31%.
Stenhousemuir vs Berwick Rangers prediction
The Ghost: Stenhousemuir over 1.5 goals, 80%
- 88%Stenhousemuir fair odds 1.14
- 10%Draw fair odds 10.26
- 2%Berwick Rangers fair odds 45.38
Most likely score 2-0 (15.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Stenhousemuir to score about 2.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 5098 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Stenhousemuir
Attack 1.08 · Defence 0.45
Last five: LLLDL, scored 1, conceded 11
Berwick Rangers
Attack 0.70 · Defence 1.16
Last five: LLDLW, scored 4, conceded 8
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Stenhousemuir won 0, 1 drawn, Berwick Rangers won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (15%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Stenhousemuir has a new coach, Marvin Bartley, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Stenhousemuir attack scores 8% more than average, against Berwick Rangers defence, which lets in 16% more than average: 2.80 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
- Berwick Rangers attack scores 30% less than average, against Stenhousemuir defence, which lets in 55% fewer than average: 0.59 goals (an average side here: 1.87)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Stenhousemuir 2.99, Berwick Rangers 0.39.
Ratings from 144 matches for Stenhousemuir and 113 for Berwick Rangers, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Berwick Rangers have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
- Stenhousemuir score 1 a game — 9th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Stenhousemuir’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 25% | 3.95 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 25.64 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 6.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.92 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 31% | 3.18 |
| Both teams to score: No | 69% | 1.46 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 15.1%
- 3–0 15.1%
- 4–0 11.3%
- 1–0 9.6%
- 5–0 6.8%
- 2–1 6.0%
- 3–1 6.0%
- 1–1 4.5%
Team news & lineups
Stenhousemuir
- 14 K. Bilham —
- 1 D. Jamieson —
- 2 R. Meechan —
- 8 L. Hodgkiss —
- 4 S. Young —
- 11 S. Bright —
- 20 M. Anderson —
- 11 L. O'Donnell Midfielder
- 5 F. Robson —
- 19 L. Grant —
- 22 A. Shinnie —
Berwick Rangers
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Form guide
Stenhousemuir at home
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.0 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Berwick Rangers away
1–3–6 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 2.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Stenhousemuir vs Berwick Rangers head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Berwick Rangers v Stenhousemuir | 1–1 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
The full Stenhousemuir vs Berwick Rangers head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | >99% | 1.00 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 98% | 1.02 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Home/Away double chance | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 88% | 1.14 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 71% | 1.40 |
| Home clean sheet | 67% | 1.48 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 58% | 1.74 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 33% | 3.07 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 29% | 3.47 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 12% | 8.37 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 12% | 8.37 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 6% | 16.68 |
| Away clean sheet | 5% | 19.94 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 2% | 45.38 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 1% | 131.37 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | <1% | 230.99 |