Ross County vs Celtic II prediction, stats & H2H

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Ross County to score about 3.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Ross County won 1, 0 drawn, Celtic II won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Celtic II has had 4 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 4-0 (10%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Ross County attack scores 88% more than average, against Celtic II defence, which lets in about the average: 4.26 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
• Celtic II attack scores 12% more than average, against Ross County defence, which lets in 53% fewer than average: 0.98 goals (an average side here: 1.87)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Ross County 4.51, Celtic II 0.68.

Ratings from 114 matches for Ross County and 115 for Celtic II, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ross County score 4.4 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Celtic II have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Celtic II score 2.7 a game — 96th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 4–0 9.7%
2. 5–0 8.8%
3. 3–0 8.5%
4. 6–0 6.7%
5. 4–1 6.5%
6. 5–1 6.0%
7. 3–1 5.7%
8. 2–0 5.6%