Morton vs Kelty Hearts prediction, stats & H2H
Morton stats & fixtures · Kelty Hearts stats & fixtures
Morton take on Kelty Hearts in the Challenge Cup (Round of 32) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Morton favourites at 72%, with the draw at 19%. The likeliest score is 2–0, at 12.8%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 48%.
Morton vs Kelty Hearts prediction
The Ghost: double chance Morton or Kelty Hearts, 81%
- 72%Morton fair odds 1.39
- 19%Draw fair odds 5.27
- 9%Kelty Hearts fair odds 11.16
Most likely score 2-0 (12.8%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Morton to score about 1.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 5098 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Morton
Attack 1.20 · Defence 0.53
Last five: WWWLL, scored 8, conceded 7
Kelty Hearts
Attack 0.89 · Defence 0.81
Last five: LLWLL, scored 5, conceded 10
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 2 meetings: Morton won 2, 0 drawn, Kelty Hearts won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (13%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Morton has a new coach, Ian Murray, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Morton attack scores 20% more than average, against Kelty Hearts defence, which lets in 19% fewer than average: 2.15 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
- Kelty Hearts attack scores 11% less than average, against Morton defence, which lets in 47% fewer than average: 0.88 goals (an average side here: 1.87)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Morton 2.31, Kelty Hearts 0.73.
Ratings from 129 matches for Morton and 140 for Kelty Hearts, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Morton score 0.6 a game — 2nd percentile in this competition.
- Kelty Hearts win 0 corners a game — 8th percentile in this competition.
- Morton win 2 corners a game — 14th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.71 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.77 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.23 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.41 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| Both teams to score: No | 52% | 1.91 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 12.8%
- 1–0 10.0%
- 3–0 9.9%
- 2–1 9.3%
- 1–1 9.1%
- 3–1 7.2%
- 0–0 5.8%
- 4–0 5.7%
Team news & lineups
Morton
- 6 K. Moore —
- 31 B. Kinnear —
- 20 C. Sandilands —
- 27 I. Wilson —
- 52 L. Fairnie —
- 21 G. Gillespie —
- 7 M. Garrity Attacker
- 3 J. Longridge —
- 47 H. Cochrane —
- 11 B. McLuckie —
- 35 D. Black —
Kelty Hearts
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Form guide
Morton at home
1–2–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 2.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 1.0 per game
Kelty Hearts away
2–0–8 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.0 per game
- Conceded
- 2.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 0.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 0.0 per game
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Morton vs Kelty Hearts head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Morton v Kelty Hearts | 4–1 | |
| Kelty Hearts v Morton | 1–3 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 97% | 1.03 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home/Away double chance | 81% | 1.23 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 72% | 1.39 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 52% | 1.94 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 50% | 1.99 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 50% | 2.01 |
| Home clean sheet | 48% | 2.06 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 28% | 3.58 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 28% | 3.58 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 16% | 6.08 |
| Away clean sheet | 10% | 10.10 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 9% | 11.16 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 4% | 26.83 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 3% | 37.39 |