Hamilton Academical vs Raith Rovers prediction, stats & H2H
Hamilton Academical stats & fixtures · Raith Rovers stats & fixtures
Hamilton Academical take on Raith Rovers in the Challenge Cup (Round of 32) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Raith Rovers favourites at 48%, with the draw at 28%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 13.2%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%.
Hamilton Academical vs Raith Rovers prediction
The Ghost: Raith Rovers to win, 48%
- 25%Hamilton Academical fair odds 4.03
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.62
- 48%Raith Rovers fair odds 2.10
Most likely score 1-1 (13.2%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Raith Rovers to score about 0.5 more.
High confidence — Fitted on 5098 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Hamilton Academical
Attack 1.23 · Defence 0.52
Last five: DDWWW, scored 8, conceded 4
Raith Rovers
Attack 1.62 · Defence 0.43
Last five: WLDWW, scored 9, conceded 4
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 5 meetings: Hamilton Academical won 0, 3 drawn, Raith Rovers won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Raith Rovers has a new coach, Paul Hanlon, for its last 7 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Hamilton Academical attack scores 23% more than average, against Raith Rovers defence, which lets in 57% fewer than average: 1.18 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
- Raith Rovers attack scores 62% more than average, against Hamilton Academical defence, which lets in 48% fewer than average: 1.57 goals (an average side here: 1.87)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Hamilton Academical 1.13, Raith Rovers 1.63.
Ratings from 150 matches for Hamilton Academical and 134 for Raith Rovers, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.36 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.88 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 12.68 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| Both teams to score: No | 44% | 2.26 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.2%
- 1–2 9.5%
- 0–1 8.8%
- 0–2 8.4%
- 0–0 7.9%
- 2–1 6.6%
- 1–0 5.7%
- 2–2 5.3%
Team news & lineups
Hamilton Academical
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Raith Rovers
- 3 Z. Delaney —
- 22 R. Millen —
- 25 K. Montagu —
- 1 J. Rae —
- 21 C. Telfer —
- 16 L. Stevenson —
- 2 J. Rowe —
- 5 C. Fordyce —
- 11 J. Robertson —
- 23 D. Easton —
- 10 L. Vaughan —
Form guide
Hamilton Academical at home
7–1–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.9 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
16% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Raith Rovers away
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Hamilton Academical vs Raith Rovers head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Academical v Raith Rovers | 1–1 | |
| Raith Rovers v Hamilton Academical | 2–2 | |
| Raith Rovers v Hamilton Academical | 5–2 | |
| Raith Rovers v Hamilton Academical | 1–1 | |
| Hamilton Academical v Raith Rovers | 1–4 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
The full Hamilton Academical vs Raith Rovers head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.11 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 80% | 1.24 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 75% | 1.33 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 75% | 1.33 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 74% | 1.35 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 68% | 1.48 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 52% | 1.91 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 52% | 1.91 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 48% | 2.07 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 48% | 2.10 |
| Away clean sheet | 32% | 3.08 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 31% | 3.22 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 26% | 3.88 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 25% | 4.03 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 22% | 4.47 |
| Home clean sheet | 20% | 5.09 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 10% | 9.53 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 10% | 9.75 |