Formartine United vs Cove Rangers prediction, stats & H2H

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Cove Rangers to score about 0.9 more.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 3 meetings: Formartine United won 0, 0 drawn, Cove Rangers won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Formartine United attack scores 30% less than average, against Cove Rangers defence, which lets in 35% fewer than average: 1.01 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
• Cove Rangers attack scores 3% more than average, against Formartine United defence, which lets in 13% fewer than average: 1.69 goals (an average side here: 1.87)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Formartine United 0.91, Cove Rangers 1.78.

Ratings from 120 matches for Formartine United and 145 for Cove Rangers, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Cove Rangers win 7 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Formartine United score 2.4 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Formartine United’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.4%
2. 0–2 10.7%
3. 0–1 10.6%
4. 1–2 9.8%
5. 0–0 8.2%
6. 0–3 6.4%
7. 1–3 5.8%
8. 2–1 5.0%