Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Dunfermline prediction & stats
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic stats & fixtures · Dunfermline stats & fixtures
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic take on Dunfermline in the Challenge Cup (Round of 32) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Dunfermline favourites at 74%, with the draw at 18%. The likeliest score is 0–2, at 13.6%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 45%.
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Dunfermline prediction
The Ghost: Dunfermline over 1.5 goals, 68%
- 8%Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic fair odds 13.04
- 18%Draw fair odds 5.55
- 74%Dunfermline fair odds 1.35
Most likely score 0-2 (13.6%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Dunfermline to score about 1.7 more.
High confidence — Fitted on 5098 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Attack 0.92 · Defence 0.82
Last five: DLDDL, scored 5, conceded 8
Dunfermline
Attack 1.43 · Defence 0.40
Last five: WWWDD, scored 8, conceded 2
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 0-2 (14%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic has a new coach, Jonathan Stewart, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack scores 8% less than average, against Dunfermline defence, which lets in 60% fewer than average: 0.83 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
- Dunfermline attack scores 43% more than average, against Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence, which lets in 18% fewer than average: 2.20 goals (an average side here: 1.87)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 0.66, Dunfermline 2.36.
Ratings from 134 matches for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic and 142 for Dunfermline, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Dunfermline score 0.9 a game — 18th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Dunfermline’s last 10.
- Dunfermline win 5 corners a game — 77th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.80 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.31 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.06 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| Both teams to score: No | 55% | 1.81 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–2 13.6%
- 0–3 10.7%
- 0–1 10.5%
- 1–2 9.0%
- 1–1 8.6%
- 1–3 7.1%
- 0–4 6.3%
- 0–0 5.9%
Team news & lineups
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Dunfermline
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Form guide
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at home
5–0–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.0 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Dunfermline away
5–3–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 0.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.0 per game
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 92% | 1.08 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 92% | 1.08 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home/Away double chance | 82% | 1.22 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 74% | 1.35 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 68% | 1.47 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 52% | 1.92 |
| Away clean sheet | 52% | 1.94 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 48% | 2.06 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 48% | 2.09 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 42% | 2.38 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 26% | 3.89 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 26% | 3.89 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 14% | 7.00 |
| Home clean sheet | 9% | 10.58 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 8% | 13.04 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 3% | 33.60 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 2% | 46.43 |