Arbroath vs Queen of the South prediction, stats & H2H
Arbroath stats & fixtures · Queen of the South stats & fixtures
Arbroath take on Queen of the South in the Challenge Cup (Round of 32) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Arbroath favourites at 56%, with the draw at 26%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 12.3%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 53%.
Arbroath vs Queen of the South prediction
The Ghost: Arbroath to win, 56%
- 56%Arbroath fair odds 1.80
- 26%Draw fair odds 3.87
- 19%Queen of the South fair odds 5.38
Most likely score 1-1 (12.3%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Arbroath to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition.
High confidence — Fitted on 5098 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Arbroath
Attack 1.09 · Defence 0.53
Last five: LLLLL, scored 1, conceded 12
Queen of the South
Attack 1.07 · Defence 0.70
Last five: LWLLW, scored 3, conceded 10
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Arbroath won 3, 1 drawn, Queen of the South won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Arbroath has a new coach, Colin Hamilton, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
- Queen of the South has a new coach, Nicky Clark, for its last 7 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Arbroath attack scores 9% more than average, against Queen of the South defence, which lets in 30% fewer than average: 1.71 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
- Queen of the South attack scores 7% more than average, against Arbroath defence, which lets in 47% fewer than average: 1.06 goals (an average side here: 1.87)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Arbroath 1.80, Queen of the South 0.97.
Ratings from 133 matches for Arbroath and 144 for Queen of the South, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Queen of the South score 0.7 a game — 4th percentile in this competition.
- Arbroath score 1.1 a game — 16th percentile in this competition.
- Queen of the South win 2 corners a game — 31st percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.32 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.77 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 13.01 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| Both teams to score: No | 47% | 2.14 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.3%
- 2–0 10.2%
- 1–0 9.9%
- 2–1 9.8%
- 0–0 7.7%
- 3–0 6.1%
- 3–1 5.9%
- 1–2 5.3%
Team news & lineups
Arbroath
- 1 A. McAdams —
- 2 S. Morrison —
- 4 B. Paterson —
- 5 T. O'Brien —
- 17 S. Robinson —
- 16 C. Watson —
- 11 R. Dow —
- 9 A. Winter —
- 15 S. McGill Midfielder
- 14 M. McKenna Midfielder
- 12 S. Stewart —
Queen of the South
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Form guide
Arbroath at home
4–2–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 3.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.0 per game
Queen of the South away
2–1–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.7 per game
- Conceded
- 2.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 2.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.0 per game
14% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Arbroath vs Queen of the South head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Arbroath v Queen of the South | 1–1 | |
| Queen of the South v Arbroath | 0–3 | |
| Arbroath v Queen of the South | 2–1 | |
| Arbroath v Queen of the South | 0–1 | |
| Queen of the South v Arbroath | 2–1 | |
| Queen of the South v Arbroath | 1–2 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 93% | 1.07 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 84% | 1.20 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 81% | 1.23 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 81% | 1.23 |
| Home/Away double chance | 74% | 1.35 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 67% | 1.48 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 62% | 1.61 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 56% | 1.80 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 54% | 1.86 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 44% | 2.25 |
| Home clean sheet | 38% | 2.63 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 33% | 3.07 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 27% | 3.70 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 25% | 3.97 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 19% | 5.38 |
| Away clean sheet | 16% | 6.07 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 7% | 13.45 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 7% | 14.55 |