Annan Athletic vs Ayr Utd prediction, stats & H2H
Annan Athletic stats & fixtures · Ayr Utd stats & fixtures
Annan Athletic take on Ayr Utd in the Challenge Cup (Round of 32) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Ayr Utd favourites at 76%, with the draw at 16%. The likeliest score is 0–2, at 11.5%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 51%.
Annan Athletic vs Ayr Utd prediction
The Ghost: under 4.5 goals, 74%
- 8%Annan Athletic fair odds 13.23
- 16%Draw fair odds 6.25
- 76%Ayr Utd fair odds 1.31
Most likely score 0-2 (11.5%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Ayr Utd to score about 1.9 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Annan Athletic
Attack 0.91 · Defence 0.87
Last five: LDLDL, scored 6, conceded 15
Ayr Utd
Attack 1.51 · Defence 0.47
Last five: WLDWL, scored 6, conceded 6
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Annan Athletic won 0, 0 drawn, Ayr Utd won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 0-2 (12%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Ayr Utd has a new coach, Gary Naysmith, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Annan Athletic attack scores 9% less than average, against Ayr Utd defence, which lets in 53% fewer than average: 0.95 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
- Ayr Utd attack scores 51% more than average, against Annan Athletic defence, which lets in 13% fewer than average: 2.46 goals (an average side here: 1.87)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Annan Athletic 0.77, Ayr Utd 2.64.
Ratings from 144 matches for Annan Athletic and 138 for Ayr Utd, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Ayr Utd have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.16 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.25 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 26% | 3.88 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 23.96 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 7.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.96 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| Both teams to score: No | 49% | 2.02 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–2 11.5%
- 0–3 10.2%
- 1–2 8.9%
- 0–1 7.9%
- 1–3 7.8%
- 1–1 7.6%
- 0–4 6.7%
- 1–4 5.2%
Team news & lineups
Annan Athletic
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Ayr Utd
- 6 R. Lyon —
- 20 L. McBeth —
- 16 B. Summers —
- 5 K. Holt —
- 1 H. Stone —
- 7 O. Stirton Attacker
- 3 L. Dick Defender
- 32 D. Watret Defender
- 22 M. McKenzie —
- 11 R. Taylor —
- 10 K. Shanks —
Form guide
Annan Athletic at home
4–2–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Ayr Utd away
4–1–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Annan Athletic vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Annan Athletic v Ayr Utd | 1–6 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 93% | 1.08 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 92% | 1.08 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 92% | 1.08 |
| Home/Away double chance | 84% | 1.19 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.31 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 56% | 1.78 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 54% | 1.87 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 49% | 2.03 |
| Away clean sheet | 46% | 2.15 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 44% | 2.28 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 24% | 4.24 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.24 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 18% | 5.58 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 8% | 13.23 |
| Home clean sheet | 7% | 14.06 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 4% | 23.38 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 2% | 43.43 |