Airdrie United vs Elgin City prediction, stats & H2H
Airdrie United stats & fixtures · Elgin City stats & fixtures
Airdrie United take on Elgin City in the Challenge Cup (Round of 32) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Airdrie United favourites at 70%, with the draw at 20%. The likeliest score is 2–0, at 11.4%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 52%.
Airdrie United vs Elgin City prediction
The Ghost: under 3.5 goals, 61%
- 70%Airdrie United fair odds 1.44
- 20%Draw fair odds 5.09
- 11%Elgin City fair odds 9.27
Most likely score 2-0 (11.4%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Airdrie United to score about 1.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Airdrie United
Attack 1.25 · Defence 0.53
Last five: LLLWD, scored 6, conceded 11
Elgin City
Attack 1.00 · Defence 0.78
Last five: WWDLW, scored 5, conceded 3
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Airdrie United won 0, 1 drawn, Elgin City won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (11%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Airdrie United has a new coach, Rhys McCabe, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Airdrie United attack scores 25% more than average, against Elgin City defence, which lets in 22% fewer than average: 2.17 goals (an average side here: 2.23)
- Elgin City attack scores about the average, against Airdrie United defence, which lets in 47% fewer than average: 0.99 goals (an average side here: 1.87)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Airdrie United 2.32, Elgin City 0.84.
Ratings from 151 matches for Airdrie United and 148 for Elgin City, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Elgin City score 1.7 a game — 78th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 2.57 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21% | 4.71 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5% | 18.83 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 6.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| Both teams to score: No | 48% | 2.09 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 11.4%
- 2–1 9.6%
- 1–1 9.3%
- 3–0 8.9%
- 1–0 8.8%
- 3–1 7.4%
- 0–0 5.3%
- 4–0 5.1%
Team news & lineups
Airdrie United
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Elgin City
Lineups aren't published for this competition, so we won't guess at one.
Form guide
Airdrie United at home
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
31% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Elgin City away
6–1–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 3.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 0.0 per game
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Airdrie United vs Elgin City head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Airdrie United v Elgin City | 1–1 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 89% | 1.12 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 89% | 1.12 |
| Home/Away double chance | 80% | 1.24 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 70% | 1.44 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 67% | 1.48 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 57% | 1.76 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 52% | 1.91 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 48% | 2.10 |
| Home clean sheet | 43% | 2.31 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 30% | 3.29 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 30% | 3.29 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 20% | 4.88 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 11% | 9.27 |
| Away clean sheet | 10% | 10.21 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 18.86 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 4% | 28.30 |