Manchester City vs Brighton match stats & report

Manchester City vs Brighton match statistics

• 57% Ball possession 43%
• 0.91 Expected goals (xG) 2.08
• 13 Total shots 17
• 3 Shots on target 6
• 4 Shots off target 9
• 6 Blocked shots 2
• 7 Shots inside the box 9
• 3 Corners 7
• 3 Fouls 20
• 4 Offsides 3
• 1 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 527 Passes 391
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 1

Goals and cards

1. 11' Yellow card M. Svoboda Brighton
2. 30' Goal M. Yalcouyé (assist G. Rutter) Brighton
3. 32' Yellow card A. Bouaddi Manchester City
4. 40' Goal M. Kovacic (assist P. Foden) Manchester City
5. 47' Goal G. Rutter (assist J. Hadjam) Brighton
6. 72' Goal Vitor Nunes (assist R. Cherki) Manchester City
7. 90+1' Yellow card M. Wieffer Brighton
8. 90+2' Yellow card L. Dunk Brighton

Penalty shoot-out: 4–3

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Manchester City to score about 0.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 20% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 30566 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Manchester City won 2, 2 drawn, Brighton won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (8%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Manchester City attack scores 337% more than average, against Brighton defence, which lets in 72% fewer than average: 2.40 goals (an average side here: 1.99)
• Brighton attack scores 295% more than average, against Manchester City defence, which lets in 74% fewer than average: 1.73 goals (an average side here: 1.67)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Manchester City 2.50, Brighton 1.64.

Ratings from 139 matches for Manchester City and 128 for Brighton, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Manchester City score 2.8 a game — 97th percentile in this competition.
• 5 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.
• Brighton score 1.6 a game — 75th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 11.0

Manchester City 7.3 · Brighton 3.7

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2250 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 8.2%
2. 1–1 7.4%
3. 3–1 6.8%
4. 2–2 6.7%
5. 3–2 5.6%
6. 1–2 5.4%
7. 2–0 5.0%
8. 4–1 4.3%