SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg match stats & report

SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg match statistics

• 61% Ball possession 39%
• 1.72 Expected goals (xG) 1.48
• 17 Total shots 6
• 3 Shots on target 2
• 8 Shots off target 3
• 6 Blocked shots 1
• 14 Shots inside the box 3
• 7 Corners 2
• 11 Fouls 14
• 6 Offsides 0
• 2 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 505 Passes 337
• 0 Goalkeeper saves 0

Goals and cards

1. 6' Goal I. Matanovic (assist C. Günter) SC Freiburg
2. 8' Goal K. Shiogai (assist T. Wellenreuther) VfL Wolfsburg
3. 36' Yellow card Y. Suzuki SC Freiburg
4. 43' Goal K. Shiogai (assist M. Damar) VfL Wolfsburg
5. 55' Yellow card S. Kumbedi VfL Wolfsburg
6. 57' Yellow card A. Bernhardsson VfL Wolfsburg
7. 60' Yellow card M. Eggestein SC Freiburg
8. 68' Yellow card K. Shiogai VfL Wolfsburg
9. 75' Goal K. Goto (assist V. Grifo) SC Freiburg
10. 90+2' Goal K. Goto (assist P. Lienhart) SC Freiburg

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects SC Freiburg to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 16% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 15280 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: SC Freiburg won 4, 1 drawn, VfL Wolfsburg won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (9%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• VfL Wolfsburg has a new coach, Tobias Strobl, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• SC Freiburg attack scores 127% more than average, against VfL Wolfsburg defence, which lets in 55% fewer than average: 2.24 goals (an average side here: 2.21)
• VfL Wolfsburg attack scores 108% more than average, against SC Freiburg defence, which lets in 59% fewer than average: 1.61 goals (an average side here: 1.90)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on SC Freiburg 2.33, VfL Wolfsburg 1.52.

Ratings from 109 matches for SC Freiburg and 113 for VfL Wolfsburg, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• SC Freiburg score 3.1 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• VfL Wolfsburg score 2.7 a game — 86th percentile in this competition.
• VfL Wolfsburg have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.8

SC Freiburg 6.7 · VfL Wolfsburg 4.1

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (361 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 8.8%
2. 1–1 8.5%
3. 3–1 6.8%
4. 2–2 6.7%
5. 2–0 5.8%
6. 1–2 5.7%
7. 3–2 5.2%
8. 3–0 4.5%