Milton Keynes Dons vs Bromley match stats & report

Milton Keynes Dons vs Bromley match statistics

• 60% Ball possession 40%
• 2.38 Expected goals (xG) 0.87
• 22 Total shots 9
• 5 Shots on target 3
• 10 Shots off target 4
• 7 Blocked shots 2
• 16 Shots inside the box 6
• 7 Corners 5
• 9 Fouls 16
• 1 Offsides 2
• 1 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 0
• 400 Passes 268
• 2 Goalkeeper saves 2

Goals and cards

1. 40' Goal A. Collins (assist A. Gilbey) Milton Keynes Dons
2. 45+2' Goal M. Pinnock (assist G. Saville) Bromley
3. 62' Goal A. Collins Milton Keynes Dons
4. 70' Yellow card K. Grant Bromley
5. 71' Goal A. Gilbey (assist B. Wiles) Milton Keynes Dons
6. 79' Goal C. Goode (assist A. Collins) Milton Keynes Dons
7. 82' Yellow card C. Paterson Milton Keynes Dons
8. 86' Yellow card J. McKiernan Bromley

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Milton Keynes Dons to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 22% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 1632 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.22× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Milton Keynes Dons’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.5%. In the numbers
• Bromley’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.6%. In the numbers
• Confirmed elevens: Milton Keynes Dons at 94% of full strength, Bromley at 95%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Milton Keynes Dons won 1, 1 drawn, Bromley won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Milton Keynes Dons is new to this competition: rated from 11 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
• Bromley is new to this competition: rated from 11 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
• Bromley has a new coach, Byron Webster, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Milton Keynes Dons attack scores 12% less than average, against Bromley defence, which lets in 23% more than average: 1.58 goals (an average side here: 1.45)
• Bromley attack scores 18% less than average, against Milton Keynes Dons defence, which lets in 7% more than average: 1.05 goals (an average side here: 1.20)

Blended with the chances each side creates (shots on target, and xG where it is recorded) and adjusted for the players selected, the call rests on Milton Keynes Dons 1.73, Bromley 0.97.

Ratings from 11 matches for Milton Keynes Dons and 11 for Bromley, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Milton Keynes Dons score 2.9 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Bromley win 3.8 corners a game — 12th percentile in this competition.
• Bromley have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 11.4

Milton Keynes Dons 7.4 · Bromley 4.0

Expected cards: 3.4

Milton Keynes Dons 1.6 · Bromley 1.8

Expected shots on target: 9.2

Milton Keynes Dons 5.8 · Bromley 3.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (535 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.8%
2. 1–0 11.2%
3. 2–1 10.5%
4. 2–0 10.3%
5. 0–0 7.5%
6. 3–1 5.8%
7. 3–0 5.7%
8. 1–2 5.2%