Port Vale vs Grimsby match stats & report
1–0 Full time
Port Vale beat Grimsby 1–0 in League Two on 10 October 2026. Expected goals finished 3.60–0.84. Grimsby had 51% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Port Vale 27%, the draw 31% and Grimsby 42%.
Port Vale vs Grimsby match statistics
- 49% Ball possession 51%
- 3.60 Expected goals (xG) 0.84
- 16 Total shots 11
- 7 Shots on target 2
- 8 Shots off target 5
- 1 Blocked shots 4
- 11 Shots inside the box 6
- 8 Corners 4
- 7 Fouls 12
- 1 Offsides 2
- 1 Yellow cards 1
- 0 Red cards 0
- 345 Passes 366
- 2 Goalkeeper saves 5
Goals and cards
- 42' Yellow card G. Hall Port Vale
- 45' Goal K. Dempsey (assist J. Headley) Port Vale
- 45+1' Yellow card F. Cartwright Grimsby
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 27%Port Vale fair odds 3.69
- 31%Draw fair odds 3.26
- 42%Grimsby fair odds 2.36
Most likely score 1-1 (14.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.71 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 11.03 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 11% | 9.05 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30% | 3.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| Both teams to score: No | 51% | 1.96 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.1
Port Vale 5.0 · Grimsby 5.1
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 9.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 10.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 11.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 12.5 | 23% | 77% |
Expected cards: 3.9
Port Vale 2.2 · Grimsby 1.7
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 4.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 5.5 | 21% | 79% |
Expected shots on target: 7.1
Port Vale 3.1 · Grimsby 4.0
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 6.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 7.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 8.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 9.5 | 19% | 81% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (527 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.5%
- 0–1 11.1%
- 0–0 11.0%
- 1–2 8.8%
- 0–2 8.4%
- 1–0 8.0%
- 2–1 6.6%
- 2–0 5.0%
Team news & lineups
Port Vale
Bench M. Asamoah , G. Byers , K. John , J. Smith , B. Waine , R. Walters , O. Lynch
Grimsby
Bench H. Cartwright , Cian Doyle , S. Finch , Iwan Morgan , E. Pruti , J. Walker , Ryley Reynolds
Form guide
Port Vale at home
6–3–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 0.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 8 / 10
- Corners
- 4.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.7 per game
10% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Grimsby away
1–6–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.0 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 5.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.5 per game
30% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Port Vale vs Grimsby head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale v Grimsby | 2–2 | |
| Grimsby v Port Vale | 3–0 | |
| Port Vale v Grimsby | 1–1 |
Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away clean sheet | 36% | 2.79 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 20% | 4.95 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 73% | 1.37 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 73% | 1.37 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 89% | 1.12 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 39% | 2.60 |
| Home/Away double chance | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 80% | 1.25 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 58% | 1.73 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 15% | 6.69 |
| Home clean sheet | 26% | 3.80 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 58% | 1.73 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 27% | 3.69 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 27% | 3.65 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 11% | 9.21 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 11.66 |