Derby vs Stoke City match stats & report
0–1 Full time
Derby stats & fixtures · Stoke City stats & fixtures
Derby lost to Stoke City 0–1 in the Championship on 17 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.07–0.62. Derby had 53% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Derby 41%, the draw 30% and Stoke City 30%.
Derby vs Stoke City match statistics
- 53% Ball possession 47%
- 1.07 Expected goals (xG) 0.62
- 17 Total shots 12
- 3 Shots on target 4
- 4 Shots off target 5
- 10 Blocked shots 3
- 14 Shots inside the box 3
- 7 Corners 4
- 12 Fouls 10
- 2 Offsides 2
- 1 Yellow cards 0
- 0 Red cards 0
- 368 Passes 324
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 49' Goal L. Graham (assist E. Galbraith) Stoke City
- 76' Yellow card D. Ozoh Derby
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 41%Derby fair odds 2.45
- 30%Draw fair odds 3.37
- 30%Stoke City fair odds 3.38
Most likely score 1-1 (14.2%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.18 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.12 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.15 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10% | 10.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27% | 3.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| Both teams to score: No | 48% | 2.09 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.4
Derby 5.4 · Stoke City 5.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 9.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 10.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 11.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 12.5 | 26% | 74% |
Expected cards: 4.3
Derby 2.1 · Stoke City 2.2
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 4.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 5.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 6.5 | 15% | 85% |
Expected shots on target: 8.4
Derby 4.7 · Stoke City 3.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 7.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 8.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 9.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 10.5 | 23% | 77% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (568 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.2%
- 0–0 9.7%
- 1–0 9.7%
- 2–1 8.8%
- 2–0 7.7%
- 0–1 7.6%
- 1–2 7.2%
- 0–2 5.3%
Team news & lineups
Derby
Bench F. Bilbija , C. Blackett-Taylor , R. Brewster , O. Fraulo , H. Meister , R. O'Donnell , L. Salvesen , Raymond Offor , I. Gordon
Stoke City
Bench G. Hirst , M. Manhoef , B. Pearson , M. Talovierov , J. Tchamadeu , R. Boženík , J. Griffiths , L. Bombino , Bae Jun-Ho
Out and doubtful
- C. Taylor Derby Out — Injury
- J. Widell Zetterstrom Derby Out — Knee Injury
- M. Clarke Derby Out — Calf Injury
- M. Johnston Derby Out — Inactive
- P. Agyemang Derby Out — Achilles Tendon Injury
- A. Cresswell Stoke City Out — Knee Injury
- C. Forsyth Derby Out — Knee Injury
- D. Murkin Derby Out — Hamstring Injury
- E. Cashin Derby Out — Inactive
- S. Langas Derby Out — Injury
- A. Ampah Stoke City Out — Knee Injury
- S. Gallagher Stoke City Out — Injury
- S. Ingelsson Stoke City Out — Muscle Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Derby at home
2–2–6 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 6.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.6 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Stoke City away
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 5.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.8 per game
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Derby vs Stoke City head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Derby v Stoke City | 2–0 | |
| Stoke City v Derby | 3–1 | |
| Derby v Stoke City | 0–0 | |
| Stoke City v Derby | 2–1 | |
| Derby v Stoke City | 3–0 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 20% | 5.09 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 41% | 2.45 |
| Home clean sheet | 32% | 3.12 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 70% | 1.42 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 70% | 1.42 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 40% | 2.52 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 16% | 6.33 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 87% | 1.14 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 75% | 1.34 |
| Home/Away double chance | 70% | 1.42 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 80% | 1.24 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 68% | 1.47 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 59% | 1.69 |
| Away clean sheet | 25% | 3.93 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 31% | 3.18 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 30% | 3.38 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 13% | 7.91 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 9.27 |