Middlesbrough vs Cardiff match stats & report
2–2 Full time
Middlesbrough stats & fixtures · Cardiff stats & fixtures
Middlesbrough drew with Cardiff 2–2 in the Championship on 17 October 2026. Expected goals finished 2.78–0.91. Middlesbrough had 57% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Middlesbrough 62%, the draw 21% and Cardiff 17%.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff match statistics
- 57% Ball possession 43%
- 2.78 Expected goals (xG) 0.91
- 36 Total shots 7
- 12 Shots on target 3
- 11 Shots off target 3
- 13 Blocked shots 1
- 23 Shots inside the box 5
- 11 Corners 4
- 9 Fouls 10
- 3 Offsides 4
- 0 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 1
- 489 Passes 378
- 1 Goalkeeper saves 8
Goals and cards
- 19' Yellow card Cardiff
- 22' Goal J. Moylan (assist O. Tanner) Cardiff
- 25' Yellow card J. Bagan Cardiff
- 45+1' Goal O. Tanner (assist J. Moylan) Cardiff
- 58' Goal T. Conway (assist C. Brittain) Middlesbrough
- 61' Goal W. Lankshear (assist A. Cozier-Duberry) Middlesbrough
- 83' Red card G. Osho Cardiff
- 88' Yellow card J. Moylan Cardiff
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 62%Middlesbrough fair odds 1.60
- 21%Draw fair odds 4.85
- 17%Cardiff fair odds 5.86
Most likely score 2-1 (10.3%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.26 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 26% | 3.87 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 23.96 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13% | 7.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 2.99 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score: No | 37% | 2.68 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.9
Middlesbrough 6.4 · Cardiff 4.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 9.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 10.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 11.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 12.5 | 31% | 69% |
Expected cards: 3.7
Middlesbrough 1.5 · Cardiff 2.2
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 4.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 5.5 | 17% | 83% |
Expected shots on target: 11.0
Middlesbrough 6.7 · Cardiff 4.3
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 9.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 10.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 11.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 12.5 | 32% | 68% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (568 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–1 10.3%
- 1–1 9.2%
- 2–0 8.6%
- 3–1 7.5%
- 1–0 6.6%
- 3–0 6.3%
- 2–2 5.4%
- 1–2 4.8%
Team news & lineups
Middlesbrough
Bench J. Sarmiento , M. Peart-Harris , M. Arfsten , C. Barron , S. Berhalter , S. Brynn , S. Byram , Leo Castledine , W. Lankshear
Cardiff
Bench W. Fish , P. Moreno , T. Perrett , C. Scanlon , R. Tankiewicz , D. Turnbull , I. Davies , H. Tyrer , Charlie Holt
Out and doubtful
- C. Chambers Cardiff Out — Knee Injury
- K. Bielik Cardiff Out — Suspended
- R. Colwill Cardiff Out — Ankle Injury
- Y. Salech Cardiff Out — Inactive
- A. Jones Middlesbrough Out — Calf Injury
- D. Strelec Middlesbrough Out — Injury
- D. Lawlor Cardiff Out — Hamstring Injury
- R. Pukstas Middlesbrough Out — Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Middlesbrough at home
5–4–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 7.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 7.3 per game
18% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Cardiff away
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- 6.9 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.6 per game
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough v Cardiff | 1–1 | |
| Cardiff v Middlesbrough | 0–2 | |
| Cardiff v Middlesbrough | 1–4 | |
| Middlesbrough v Cardiff | 2–0 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 60% | 1.66 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 38% | 2.65 |
| Away clean sheet | 10% | 9.81 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 38% | 2.65 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 17% | 5.86 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 83% | 1.21 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 93% | 1.08 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 62% | 1.60 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.46 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 83% | 1.21 |
| Home/Away double chance | 79% | 1.26 |
| Home clean sheet | 31% | 3.19 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 40% | 2.52 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 66% | 1.50 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 32% | 3.11 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 39% | 2.54 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 8.94 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 7% | 14.20 |