QPR vs Derby match stats & report
4–1 Full time
QPR beat Derby 4–1 in the Championship on 14 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.60–0.92. Derby had 52% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave QPR 44%, the draw 29% and Derby 27%.
QPR vs Derby match statistics
- 48% Ball possession 52%
- 1.60 Expected goals (xG) 0.92
- 9 Total shots 15
- 7 Shots on target 6
- 2 Shots off target 5
- 0 Blocked shots 4
- 6 Shots inside the box 13
- 1 Corners 3
- 10 Fouls 10
- 0 Offsides 2
- 2 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 0
- 439 Passes 463
- 5 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 18' Goal A. Lloyd (assist B. Kemper) QPR
- 22' Penalty scored N. Madsen QPR
- 24' Yellow card D. Ozoh Derby
- 28' Yellow card Derby
- 44' Yellow card S. Szmodics Derby
- 45' Goal H. Vale QPR
- 56' Yellow card H. Meister Derby
- 57' Yellow card H. Vale QPR
- 60' Yellow card G. Kamara QPR
- 68' Goal P. Smyth (assist N. Madsen) QPR
- 90+10' Goal L. Salvesen Derby
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 44%QPR fair odds 2.28
- 29%Draw fair odds 3.43
- 27%Derby fair odds 3.69
Most likely score 1-1 (13.9%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.01 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 8.82 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 10.61 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| Both teams to score: No | 48% | 2.10 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.4
QPR 6.1 · Derby 4.3
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 9.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 10.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 11.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 12.5 | 26% | 74% |
Expected cards: 4.0
QPR 1.7 · Derby 2.3
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 4.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 5.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 6.5 | 12% | 88% |
Expected shots on target: 8.7
QPR 5.2 · Derby 3.5
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 7.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 8.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 9.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 10.5 | 27% | 73% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (563 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.9%
- 1–0 10.0%
- 0–0 9.4%
- 2–1 9.2%
- 2–0 8.3%
- 0–1 7.0%
- 1–2 6.8%
- 2–2 4.8%
Team news & lineups
QPR
Bench I. Alemayehu , J. Clarke-Salter , R. Kone , A. S. Mbengue , L. Morrison , K. Poku , J. Varane , C. Ward , Leon Scarlett
Derby
Bench R. Brewster , O. Fraulo , H. Meister , R. Nyambe , R. O'Donnell , L. Salvesen , L. Travis , C. Blackett-Taylor , F. Bilbija
Out and doubtful
- C. Taylor Derby Out — Injury
- J. Widell Zetterstrom Derby Out — Knee Injury
- M. Clarke Derby Out — Calf Injury
- M. Johnston Derby Out — Inactive
- P. Agyemang Derby Out — Achilles Tendon Injury
- I. Chair QPR Out — Muscle Injury
- K. Saito QPR Out — Inactive
- R. Burrell QPR Out — Inactive
- C. Forsyth Derby Out — Knee Injury
- D. Murkin Derby Out — Hamstring Injury
- E. Cashin Derby Out — Inactive
- D. Cirkin QPR Out — Red Card
- K. Dembele QPR Out — Knee Injury
- T. Lamptey QPR Out — Inactive
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
QPR at home
4–3–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 6.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.5 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Derby away
3–2–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 4.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.2 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
QPR vs Derby head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| QPR v Derby | 2–3 | |
| Derby v QPR | 1–0 | |
| QPR v Derby | 4–0 | |
| Derby v QPR | 2–0 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away -0.5 handicap | 27% | 3.69 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 56% | 1.78 |
| Away clean sheet | 24% | 4.23 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 56% | 1.78 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 30% | 3.34 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 11% | 8.88 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 78% | 1.28 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 10% | 10.08 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 66% | 1.50 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 89% | 1.13 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 76% | 1.31 |
| Home/Away double chance | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home clean sheet | 34% | 2.98 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 42% | 2.36 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 44% | 2.28 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 22% | 4.58 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 18% | 5.69 |