Cardiff vs Watford match stats & report
5–1 Full time
Cardiff beat Watford 5–1 in the Championship on 13 October 2026. Expected goals finished 3.75–1.52. Cardiff had 58% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Cardiff 50%, the draw 26% and Watford 24%.
Cardiff vs Watford match statistics
- 58% Ball possession 42%
- 3.75 Expected goals (xG) 1.52
- 22 Total shots 14
- 10 Shots on target 4
- 7 Shots off target 7
- 5 Blocked shots 3
- 14 Shots inside the box 10
- 6 Corners 1
- 12 Fouls 12
- 4 Offsides 4
- 1 Yellow cards 4
- 0 Red cards 0
- 494 Passes 358
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 6
Goals and cards
- 9' Yellow card M. Payero Watford
- 11' Penalty scored J. Moylan Cardiff
- 35' Goal J. Moylan (assist Cian Ashford) Cardiff
- 41' Own goal M. Pollock Cardiff
- 45+5' Goal O. Tanner (assist P. Ng) Cardiff
- 65' Penalty missed C. Willock Cardiff
- 73' Yellow card E. Kayembe Watford
- 85' Goal C. Robinson (assist D. Turnbull) Cardiff
- 86' Yellow card Amin Nabizada Watford
- 86' Yellow card P. Ng Cardiff
- 87' Goal H. Kyprianou (assist Iker Bravo) Watford
- 90+5' Yellow card H. Kyprianou Watford
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 50%Cardiff fair odds 2.01
- 26%Draw fair odds 3.86
- 24%Watford fair odds 4.11
Most likely score 1-1 (12.3%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.05 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17% | 5.99 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7% | 14.68 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 4.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| Both teams to score: No | 42% | 2.38 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.0
Cardiff 6.9 · Watford 4.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 9.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 10.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 11.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 12.5 | 32% | 68% |
Expected cards: 4.3
Cardiff 1.8 · Watford 2.4
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 4.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 5.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 6.5 | 15% | 85% |
Expected shots on target: 10.6
Cardiff 5.9 · Watford 4.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 9.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 10.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 11.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 12.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (556 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.3%
- 2–1 10.0%
- 1–0 8.4%
- 2–0 8.4%
- 0–0 6.8%
- 1–2 6.4%
- 3–1 5.6%
- 2–2 5.5%
Team news & lineups
Cardiff
Bench H. Tyrer , D. Turnbull , C. Scanlon , C. Robinson , P. Moreno , R. Kpakio , W. Fish , I. Davies , Charlie Holt
Watford
Bench M. Doumbia , K. Diatta , S. Coulibaly , Iker Bravo , M. Bola , D. Bachmann , L. Kjerrumgaard , B. Mlacic , Amin Nabizada
Out and doubtful
- C. Chambers Cardiff Out — Knee Injury
- K. Bielik Cardiff Out — Suspended
- R. Colwill Cardiff Out — Ankle Injury
- Y. Salech Cardiff Out — Inactive
- J. Ngakia Watford Out — Thigh Injury
- K. Baah Watford Out — Knock
- E. Bove Watford Out — Knee Injury
- M. Antonio Watford Out — Inactive
- T. Akomeah Watford Out — Lacking Match Fitness
- D. Lawlor Cardiff Doubtful — Inactive
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Cardiff at home
6–3–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 7.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 7.3 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Watford away
0–2–8 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.6 per game
- Conceded
- 2.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- 3.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.3 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Cardiff vs Watford head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff v Watford | 1–1 | |
| Watford v Cardiff | 1–2 | |
| Watford v Cardiff | 0–1 | |
| Cardiff v Watford | 1–1 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away clean sheet | 18% | 5.65 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 50% | 1.99 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.11 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 73% | 1.38 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 10% | 9.64 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 33% | 3.08 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Home clean sheet | 31% | 3.21 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.12 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 82% | 1.21 |
| Home/Away double chance | 74% | 1.35 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.32 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 8.76 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 50% | 2.01 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 52% | 1.93 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 27% | 3.65 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 25% | 4.01 |