Derby vs Wrexham match stats & report
1–1 Full time
Derby drew with Wrexham 1–1 in the Championship on 10 October 2026. Expected goals finished 0.56–1.32. Wrexham had 55% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Derby 40%, the draw 30% and Wrexham 30%.
Derby vs Wrexham match statistics
- 45% Ball possession 55%
- 0.56 Expected goals (xG) 1.32
- 10 Total shots 13
- 4 Shots on target 3
- 5 Shots off target 5
- 1 Blocked shots 5
- 4 Shots inside the box 10
- 1 Corners 9
- 10 Fouls 6
- 1 Offsides 3
- 3 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 396 Passes 470
- 2 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 5' Yellow card S. Langas Derby
- 9' Goal S. Szmodics (assist M. Fuseini) Derby
- 52' Yellow card R. Hedges Derby
- 71' Yellow card O. Rathbone Wrexham
- 74' Yellow card A. Mowatt Derby
- 88' Goal O. Rathbone (assist K. Moore) Wrexham
- 90+1' Yellow card K. Moore Wrexham
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 40%Derby fair odds 2.50
- 30%Draw fair odds 3.38
- 30%Wrexham fair odds 3.28
Most likely score 1-1 (14.1%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.05 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 8.94 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10% | 10.47 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27% | 3.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| Both teams to score: No | 47% | 2.11 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.3
Derby 5.9 · Wrexham 4.4
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 9.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 10.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 11.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 12.5 | 25% | 75% |
Expected cards: 3.9
Derby 2.1 · Wrexham 1.8
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 4.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 5.5 | 20% | 80% |
Expected shots on target: 8.3
Derby 4.6 · Wrexham 3.6
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 7.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 8.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 9.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 10.5 | 22% | 78% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (545 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.1%
- 0–0 9.6%
- 1–0 9.4%
- 2–1 8.7%
- 0–1 7.7%
- 2–0 7.5%
- 1–2 7.4%
- 0–2 5.5%
Team news & lineups
Derby
Bench F. Bilbija , C. Blackett-Taylor , R. Brewster , O. Fraulo , H. Meister , R. Nyambe , R. O'Donnell , L. Salvesen , L. Travis
Wrexham
Bench S. Smith , D. Ward , O. Rathbone , R. Longman , A. James , Daniel Edward Peter Imray , G. Dobson , B. Cadamarteri , Samuel Chesworth
Out and doubtful
- C. Taylor Derby Out — Injury
- J. Widell Zetterstrom Derby Out — Knee Injury
- M. Clarke Derby Out — Calf Injury
- P. Agyemang Derby Out — Achilles Tendon Injury
- C. Forsyth Derby Out — Knee Injury
- D. Murkin Derby Out — Hamstring Injury
- G. Thomason Wrexham Out — Thigh Injury
- L. Cacace Wrexham Out — Calf Injury
- M. Cleworth Wrexham Out — Muscle Injury
- N. Broadhead Wrexham Out — Thigh Injury
- S. Revan Wrexham Out — Hamstring Injury
- F. Bilbija Derby Doubtful — Back Injury
- H. Meister Derby Doubtful — Concussion
- O. Rathbone Wrexham Doubtful — Ankle Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Derby at home
2–2–6 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 6.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.6 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Wrexham away
3–4–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.8 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Derby vs Wrexham head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Derby v Wrexham | 1–2 | |
| Wrexham v Derby | 1–1 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 19% | 5.22 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 40% | 2.50 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 16% | 6.39 |
| Home clean sheet | 31% | 3.20 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 70% | 1.44 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 70% | 1.44 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 39% | 2.53 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Home/Away double chance | 70% | 1.42 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 81% | 1.24 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.46 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 60% | 1.66 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 32% | 3.08 |
| Away clean sheet | 26% | 3.89 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 30% | 3.28 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 13% | 7.57 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 8.82 |