Watford vs Burnley match stats & report
0–4 Full time
Watford lost to Burnley 0–4 in the Championship on 10 October 2026. Expected goals finished 0.47–1.86. Watford had 52% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Watford 36%, the draw 31% and Burnley 33%.
Watford vs Burnley match statistics
- 52% Ball possession 48%
- 0.47 Expected goals (xG) 1.86
- 14 Total shots 17
- 6 Shots on target 8
- 6 Shots off target 4
- 2 Blocked shots 5
- 7 Shots inside the box 12
- 6 Corners 2
- 8 Fouls 10
- 2 Offsides 5
- 0 Yellow cards 0
- 0 Red cards 0
- 449 Passes 421
- 4 Goalkeeper saves 6
Goals and cards
- 13' Goal J. Bruun Larsen (assist R. Hatate) Burnley
- 19' Goal Z. Amdouni Burnley
- 25' Goal R. Hatate (assist Lucas Pires) Burnley
- 87' Goal M. Edwards (assist Lucas Pires) Burnley
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 36%Watford fair odds 2.78
- 31%Draw fair odds 3.27
- 33%Burnley fair odds 2.99
Most likely score 1-1 (14.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.29 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 4.44 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10% | 10.15 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10% | 9.54 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29% | 3.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| Both teams to score: No | 49% | 2.03 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.3
Watford 5.3 · Burnley 5.1
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 9.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 10.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 11.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 12.5 | 25% | 75% |
Expected cards: 4.5
Watford 2.0 · Burnley 2.5
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 4.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 5.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 6.5 | 18% | 82% |
Expected shots on target: 8.8
Watford 5.2 · Burnley 3.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 7.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 8.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 9.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 10.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (545 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.5%
- 0–0 10.5%
- 1–0 9.4%
- 0–1 8.9%
- 2–1 8.1%
- 1–2 7.7%
- 2–0 6.8%
- 0–2 6.3%
Team news & lineups
Watford
Bench R. Vata , J. Zemura , D. Bachmann , M. Boadu , M. Bola , K. Keben , O. Maamma , S. Mavididi , M. Payero
Burnley
Bench M. Edwards , H. Ekdal , A. Hountondji , C. Roberts , D. Satpaev , O. Sonne , J. Vardy , M. Weiß , A. Broja
Out and doubtful
- B. Humphreys Burnley Out — Muscle Injury
- H. Ekdal Burnley Out — Injury
- J. Cullen Burnley Out — Knee Injury
- J. Ngakia Watford Out — Thigh Injury
- K. Baah Watford Out — Knock
- A. Barnes Burnley Out — Muscle Injury
- A. Ramsey Burnley Out — Hamstring Injury
- E. Agyei Burnley Out — Muscle Injury
- H. Mejbri Burnley Out — Hamstring Injury
- J. Banel Burnley Out — Muscle Injury
- J. Beyer Burnley Out — Hamstring Injury
- M. Obafemi Burnley Out — Inactive
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiye Burnley Out — Inactive
- S. Sambo Burnley Out — Inactive
- E. Bove Watford Out — Knee Injury
- T. Akomeah Watford Out — Lacking Match Fitness
- D. Satpaev Burnley Doubtful — Hamstring Injury
- J. Bruun Larsen Burnley Doubtful — Inactive
- J. Zemura Watford Doubtful — Muscle Injury
- M. Bola Watford Doubtful — Hamstring Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Watford at home
4–1–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 4.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.8 per game
36% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Burnley away
1–2–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 2.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 4.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.2 per game
9% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Watford vs Burnley head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Watford v Burnley | 1–2 | |
| Burnley v Watford | 2–1 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home clean sheet | 31% | 3.27 |
| Away clean sheet | 29% | 3.44 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 67% | 1.50 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 67% | 1.50 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.17 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 64% | 1.56 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 64% | 1.56 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home/Away double chance | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 16% | 6.13 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 35% | 2.85 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 33% | 2.99 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 13% | 7.78 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 33% | 3.01 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.80 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.51 |