Almeria vs Burgos match stats & report
2–1 Full time
Almeria beat Burgos 2–1 in the Segunda División on 3 October 2026. Almeria had 69% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Almeria 48%, the draw 28% and Burgos 23%.
Almeria vs Burgos match statistics
- 69% Ball possession 31%
- 25 Total shots 9
- 8 Shots on target 4
- 13 Shots off target 4
- 4 Blocked shots 1
- 16 Shots inside the box 7
- 8 Corners 3
- 15 Fouls 13
- 2 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 0
- 621 Passes 284
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 6
Goals and cards
- 33' Yellow card Léo Baptistão Almeria
- 37' Yellow card Brais Martínez Burgos
- 40' Goal Jon Karrikaburu (assist Javi Llabrés) Burgos
- 49' Yellow card Marcos Luna Almeria
- 74' Yellow card Alberto Dadie Burgos
- 77' Yellow card P. Galdames Burgos
- 77' Goal B. Cipenga (assist Sergio Arribas) Almeria
- 84' Goal Miguel de la Fuente Almeria
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 48%Almeria fair odds 2.06
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.52
- 23%Burgos fair odds 4.34
Most likely score 1-1 (13.6%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.04 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 8.90 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 10.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27% | 3.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| Both teams to score: No | 49% | 2.04 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.8
Almeria 5.2 · Burgos 3.6
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 7.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 8.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 9.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 10.5 | 28% | 72% |
Expected cards: 5.3
Almeria 2.5 · Burgos 2.8
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 4.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 5.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 6.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 7.5 | 18% | 82% |
Expected shots on target: 8.2
Almeria 5.1 · Burgos 3.1
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 7.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 8.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 9.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 10.5 | 22% | 78% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (469 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.6%
- 1–0 10.9%
- 2–1 9.6%
- 0–0 9.4%
- 2–0 9.4%
- 0–1 6.3%
- 1–2 6.0%
- 3–1 4.8%
Team news & lineups
Almeria
Bench Quim Junyent , Adri Embarba , K. Kone , Fernando Martínez , Nico Melamed , Jon Morcillo , Álex Muñoz , Jorge Pulido , Álex Sola , Á. Yaakobishvili , Miguel de la Fuente , D. Chirino
Burgos
Bench Fermin Garcia , Mario Cantero , Álex Forés , P. Galdames , D. Gonzalez , S. Lencinas , Álex , I. Martinez , Víctor Mollejo , M. Monedero , Ignasi Vilarrasa
Form guide
Almeria at home
8–0–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 5.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.1 per game
26% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Burgos away
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 3.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.7 per game
27% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Almeria vs Burgos head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos v Almeria | 0–0 | |
| Almeria v Burgos | 1–2 | |
| Burgos v Almeria | 3–1 | |
| Almeria v Burgos | 2–0 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 52% | 1.94 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 8% | 12.35 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 23% | 4.34 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 26% | 3.79 |
| Away clean sheet | 22% | 4.64 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 75% | 1.34 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 9% | 11.06 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 78% | 1.27 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.40 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 45% | 2.21 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 48% | 2.06 |
| Home clean sheet | 37% | 2.72 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 25% | 3.97 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 20% | 5.08 |