Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United result

Goals and cards

1. 3' Goal E. Asieche Mathare United
2. 46' Goal Ulinzi Stars
3. 73' Goal M. Wambi Ulinzi Stars

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 17% in this competition. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 653 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.17× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Ulinzi Stars’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.3%. In the numbers
• Mathare United’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.3%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Ulinzi Stars won 1, 1 drawn, Mathare United won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (16%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Ulinzi Stars attack scores about the average, against Mathare United defence, which lets in about the average: 1.06 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
• Mathare United attack scores 6% less than average, against Ulinzi Stars defence, which lets in about the average: 0.87 goals (an average side here: 0.91)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Ulinzi Stars 1.05, Mathare United 0.87.

Ratings from 71 matches for Ulinzi Stars and 72 for Mathare United, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Mathare United have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 16.1%
2. 1–1 14.8%
3. 1–0 14.2%
4. 0–1 11.1%
5. 2–0 8.1%
6. 2–1 7.1%
7. 1–2 5.7%
8. 0–2 5.5%