Tusker vs Mara Sugar result
3–1 Full time
Tusker stats & fixtures · Mara Sugar stats & fixtures
Tusker beat Mara Sugar 3–1 in the FKF Premier League on 2 November 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Tusker 38%, the draw 35% and Mara Sugar 28%.
Goals and cards
- 43' Goal F. Adikiny Tusker
- 70' Goal E. Kapaito Tusker
- 78' Goal Tusker
- 88' Own goal Mara Sugar
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Tusker or a draw, 72% before kick-off
- 38%Tusker fair odds 2.65
- 35%Draw fair odds 2.90
- 28%Mara Sugar fair odds 3.60
Most likely score 0-0 (16.3%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 17% in this competition. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.
High confidence — Fitted on 653 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Tusker
Attack 1.01 · Defence 0.98
Last five: LDLWW, scored 5, conceded 4
Against its rating, a match: −0.1 scored, +0.2 conceded
Mara Sugar
Attack 0.97 · Defence 0.97
Last five: DDWDL, scored 5, conceded 5
Against its rating, a match: −0.8 scored, −0.5 conceded
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.17× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Tusker’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.3%. In the numbers
- Mara Sugar’s last five moved its expected goals by −2.5%. In the numbers
- Last 5 meetings: Tusker won 3, 1 drawn, Mara Sugar won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 0-0 (16%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Mara Sugar’s last five run against its rating: −0.8 a match scored, −0.5 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: −2.5% to its expected goals. In the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Tusker attack scores about the average, against Mara Sugar defence, which lets in 3% fewer than average: 1.05 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
- Mara Sugar attack scores 3% less than average, against Tusker defence, which lets in about the average: 0.87 goals (an average side here: 0.91)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Tusker 1.04, Mara Sugar 0.86.
Ratings from 70 matches for Tusker and 72 for Mara Sugar, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Tusker’s last 10.
- Tusker have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.
- Tusker score 1.1 a game — 63rd percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 84% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 7.92 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 4% | 22.51 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 16% | 6.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 87% | 1.14 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 96% | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| Both teams to score: No | 61% | 1.64 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–0 16.3%
- 1–1 14.9%
- 1–0 14.3%
- 0–1 11.3%
- 2–0 8.0%
- 2–1 7.1%
- 1–2 5.7%
- 0–2 5.5%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Tusker at home
6–2–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 0.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
8% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Mara Sugar away
2–4–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
38% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Tusker vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Tusker v Mara Sugar | 0–1 | |
| Mara Sugar v Tusker | 0–1 | |
| Mara Sugar v Tusker | 1–1 | |
| Tusker v Mara Sugar | 2–1 | |
| Mara Sugar v Tusker | 1–2 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.11 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.18 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home/Away double chance | 65% | 1.53 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 62% | 1.61 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 62% | 1.61 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 58% | 1.73 |
| Home clean sheet | 42% | 2.36 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 38% | 2.65 |
| Away clean sheet | 35% | 2.85 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 28% | 3.58 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 28% | 3.60 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 21% | 4.69 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.57 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 10% | 10.11 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 11.45 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 17.49 |