Shabana vs Kenya Police result

Goals and cards

1. 14' Goal B. Chonjo Kenya Police

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Shabana to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 17% in this competition. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.17× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-0 (17%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Kenya Police is new to this competition: rated from 3 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Shabana attack scores 6% more than average, against Kenya Police defence, which lets in about the average: 1.12 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
• Kenya Police attack scores 14% less than average, against Shabana defence, which lets in 9% fewer than average: 0.71 goals (an average side here: 0.91)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Shabana 1.16, Kenya Police 0.71.

Ratings from 72 matches for Shabana and 3 for Kenya Police, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Shabana score 0.6 a game — 11th percentile in this competition.
• Shabana have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Shabana’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–0 17.1%
2. 0–0 16.7%
3. 1–1 14.1%
4. 2–0 10.4%
5. 0–1 9.1%
6. 2–1 7.7%
7. 1–2 4.3%
8. 3–0 3.9%