Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite result

Goals and cards

1. 45' Goal P. Nyakwaka Migori Youth
2. 85' Goal T. Asiku Migori Youth

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 16% in this competition. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (17%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Migori Youth is new to this competition: rated from 3 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
• Mombasa Elite is new to this competition: rated from 5 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Migori Youth attack scores 12% less than average, against Mombasa Elite defence, which lets in 10% more than average: 1.04 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
• Mombasa Elite attack scores 11% less than average, against Migori Youth defence, which lets in about the average: 0.81 goals (an average side here: 0.92)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Migori Youth 1.06, Mombasa Elite 0.82.

Ratings from 3 matches for Migori Youth and 5 for Mombasa Elite, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 16.7%
2. 1–0 15.0%
3. 1–1 14.8%
4. 0–1 10.9%
5. 2–0 8.5%
6. 2–1 7.1%
7. 1–2 5.3%
8. 0–2 5.1%