AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz result

Goals and cards

1. 44' Goal E. Lwangu (assist J. Kinyanjui) AFC Leopards
2. 54' Goal J. Kinyanjui (assist A. Kanteh) AFC Leopards

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 16% in this competition. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 648 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• AFC Leopards’s last five moved its expected goals by −2.1%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: AFC Leopards won 1, 1 drawn, Homeboyz won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• AFC Leopards attack scores 17% more than average, against Homeboyz defence, which lets in 4% fewer than average: 1.20 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
• Homeboyz attack scores 21% more than average, against AFC Leopards defence, which lets in 14% fewer than average: 0.95 goals (an average side here: 0.92)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on AFC Leopards 1.16, Homeboyz 0.94.

Ratings from 72 matches for AFC Leopards and 71 for Homeboyz, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Both teams have scored in 2 of AFC Leopards’s last 10.
• AFC Leopards score 0.8 a game — 21st percentile in this competition.
• AFC Leopards have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.6%
2. 0–0 13.6%
3. 1–0 13.2%
4. 0–1 10.1%
5. 2–0 8.3%
6. 2–1 7.9%
7. 1–2 6.2%
8. 0–2 5.4%