GOR Mahia vs KCB result

Goals and cards

1. 20' Goal A. Mambote (assist P. Kinyanjui) KCB
2. 33' Goal R. Omondi KCB
3. 37' Penalty scored A. Onyango GOR Mahia
4. 86' Red card KCB

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects GOR Mahia to score about 0.8 more and playing at home is worth roughly 16% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 648 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• KCB’s last five moved its expected goals by +1.0%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: GOR Mahia won 3, 1 drawn, KCB won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-0 (16%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• GOR Mahia attack scores 34% more than average, against KCB defence, which lets in 4% more than average: 1.49 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
• KCB attack scores 9% more than average, against GOR Mahia defence, which lets in 23% fewer than average: 0.77 goals (an average side here: 0.92)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on GOR Mahia 1.49, KCB 0.72.

Ratings from 72 matches for GOR Mahia and 72 for KCB, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• KCB score 1.1 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• KCB have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• GOR Mahia score 1.1 a game — 63rd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–0 16.0%
2. 1–1 12.7%
3. 2–0 12.3%
4. 0–0 11.8%
5. 2–1 9.5%
6. 0–1 6.3%
7. 3–0 5.8%
8. 3–1 4.5%