Shabana vs Migori Youth result

Goals and cards

1. 45+1' Goal T. Asiku Shabana
2. 75' Goal Migori Youth

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Shabana to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 16% in this competition. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 645 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-0 (17%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Migori Youth is new to this competition: rated from 2 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Shabana attack scores 5% more than average, against Migori Youth defence, which lets in about the average: 1.12 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• Migori Youth attack scores 14% less than average, against Shabana defence, which lets in 10% fewer than average: 0.72 goals (an average side here: 0.92)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Shabana 1.16, Migori Youth 0.71.

Ratings from 71 matches for Shabana and 2 for Migori Youth, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Shabana score 0.6 a game — 11th percentile in this competition.
• Shabana have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Shabana’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–0 17.0%
2. 0–0 16.6%
3. 1–1 14.1%
4. 2–0 10.3%
5. 0–1 9.2%
6. 2–1 7.7%
7. 1–2 4.3%
8. 3–0 3.9%