Kenya Police vs Ulinzi Stars result

Goals and cards

1. 24' Goal E. Rupia (assist T. Asiku) Kenya Police

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (17%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Kenya Police is new to this competition: rated from 2 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Kenya Police attack scores 15% less than average, against Ulinzi Stars defence, which lets in about the average: 0.91 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• Ulinzi Stars attack scores about the average, against Kenya Police defence, which lets in 3% more than average: 0.95 goals (an average side here: 0.92)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Kenya Police 0.90, Ulinzi Stars 1.00.

Ratings from 2 matches for Kenya Police and 70 for Ulinzi Stars, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ulinzi Stars score 1 a game — 74th percentile in this competition.
• Ulinzi Stars have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 16.5%
2. 1–1 14.9%
3. 0–1 13.7%
4. 1–0 12.0%
5. 0–2 7.4%
6. 1–2 6.7%
7. 2–0 6.0%
8. 2–1 6.0%