Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United result
3–2 Full time
Murang'a SEAL stats & fixtures · Nairobi United stats & fixtures
Murang'a SEAL beat Nairobi United 3–2 in the FKF Premier League on 28 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Murang'a SEAL 35%, the draw 30% and Nairobi United 36%.
Goals and cards
- 11' Goal J. Lopaga Murang'a SEAL
- 15' Goal M. Charo (assist J. Lopaga) Murang'a SEAL
- 23' Goal B. Omalla (assist J. Seremba) Nairobi United
- 33' Goal J. Lopaga (assist L. Maina) Murang'a SEAL
- 54' Goal M. Karamor Nairobi United
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: double chance Murang'a SEAL or Nairobi United, 70% before kick-off
- 35%Murang'a SEAL fair odds 2.89
- 30%Draw fair odds 3.37
- 36%Nairobi United fair odds 2.80
Most likely score 1-1 (14.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same.
High confidence — Fitted on 639 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Murang'a SEAL
Attack 1.16 · Defence 1.18
Last five: LWLWW, scored 12, conceded 8
Against its rating, a match: +1.4 scored, +0.6 conceded
Nairobi United
Attack 1.15 · Defence 1.00
Last five: DDDWD, scored 4, conceded 3
Against its rating, a match: −0.3 scored, −0.5 conceded
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Murang'a SEAL’s last five moved its expected goals by +4.8%. In the numbers
- Last 2 meetings: Murang'a SEAL won 0, 1 drawn, Nairobi United won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Nairobi United is new to this competition: rated from 37 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
- Murang'a SEAL’s last five run against its rating: +1.4 a match scored, +0.6 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: +4.8% to its expected goals. In the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Murang'a SEAL attack scores 16% more than average, against Nairobi United defence, which lets in about the average: 1.22 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
- Nairobi United attack scores 15% more than average, against Murang'a SEAL defence, which lets in 18% more than average: 1.25 goals (an average side here: 0.93)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Murang'a SEAL 1.18, Nairobi United 1.21.
Ratings from 70 matches for Murang'a SEAL and 37 for Nairobi United, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Murang'a SEAL score 1.8 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
- Nairobi United score 1.1 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Murang'a SEAL’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.59 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 10.60 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10% | 9.72 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30% | 3.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| Both teams to score: No | 50% | 1.98 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.1%
- 0–0 10.3%
- 0–1 9.9%
- 1–0 9.7%
- 1–2 8.0%
- 2–1 7.8%
- 0–2 6.7%
- 2–0 6.5%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Murang'a SEAL at home
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
22% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Nairobi United away
4–3–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Murang'a SEAL v Nairobi United | 2–4 | |
| Nairobi United v Murang'a SEAL | 1–1 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
The full Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.18 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home/Away double chance | 70% | 1.42 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 65% | 1.53 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 65% | 1.53 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 64% | 1.56 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 64% | 1.56 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 36% | 2.80 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 35% | 2.89 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 34% | 2.94 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 33% | 3.01 |
| Away clean sheet | 31% | 3.26 |
| Home clean sheet | 30% | 3.33 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 16% | 6.36 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.64 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.20 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.53 |