Mathare United vs Tusker result

Goals and cards

1. 30' Goal Mathare United
2. 44' Goal Mathare United
3. 52' Goal F. Adikiny Tusker

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 645 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.16× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Mathare United’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.4%. In the numbers
• Tusker’s last five moved its expected goals by −0.6%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Mathare United won 2, 1 drawn, Tusker won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (17%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Mathare United attack scores 8% less than average, against Tusker defence, which lets in 4% fewer than average: 0.94 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• Tusker attack scores about the average, against Mathare United defence, which lets in about the average: 0.93 goals (an average side here: 0.92)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Mathare United 0.92, Tusker 0.96.

Ratings from 71 matches for Mathare United and 69 for Tusker, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Mathare United score 1.4 a game — 84th percentile in this competition.
• Tusker have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 16.8%
2. 1–1 15.0%
3. 0–1 13.3%
4. 1–0 12.5%
5. 0–2 7.0%
6. 1–2 6.5%
7. 2–0 6.4%
8. 2–1 6.1%