Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards result

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 639 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Mara Sugar’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.9%. In the numbers
• AFC Leopards’s last five moved its expected goals by −2.2%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Mara Sugar won 1, 1 drawn, AFC Leopards won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (15%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Mara Sugar attack scores about the average, against AFC Leopards defence, which lets in 13% fewer than average: 0.92 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• AFC Leopards attack scores 18% more than average, against Mara Sugar defence, which lets in about the average: 1.09 goals (an average side here: 0.93)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Mara Sugar 0.87, AFC Leopards 1.11.

Ratings from 71 matches for Mara Sugar and 71 for AFC Leopards, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• AFC Leopards score 1.1 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Mara Sugar’s last 10.
• Mara Sugar have kept 5 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 15.2%
2. 1–1 14.7%
3. 0–1 14.2%
4. 1–0 10.5%
5. 0–2 8.5%
6. 1–2 7.5%
7. 2–1 5.7%
8. 2–0 5.2%