KCB vs Mombasa Elite result

Goals and cards

1. 9' Goal Mombasa Elite
2. 20' Goal A. Mambote KCB
3. 84' Goal F. Omoto KCB
4. 90+6' Goal KCB

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects KCB to score about 0.3 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-0 (15%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Mombasa Elite is new to this competition: rated from 4 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• KCB attack scores 7% more than average, against Mombasa Elite defence, which lets in 3% more than average: 1.17 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• Mombasa Elite attack scores 13% less than average, against KCB defence, which lets in 4% more than average: 0.84 goals (an average side here: 0.93)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on KCB 1.17, Mombasa Elite 0.83.

Ratings from 71 matches for KCB and 4 for Mombasa Elite, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• KCB score 1.3 a game — 74th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–0 14.8%
2. 0–0 14.8%
3. 1–1 14.5%
4. 0–1 9.6%
5. 2–0 9.2%
6. 2–1 7.9%
7. 1–2 5.3%
8. 0–2 4.7%