Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia result

Goals and cards

1. 69' Goal P. Okoth GOR Mahia

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects GOR Mahia to score about 0.3 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 639 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Homeboyz’s last five moved its expected goals by −0.8%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Homeboyz won 0, 1 drawn, GOR Mahia won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Homeboyz has had 6 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Homeboyz attack scores 23% more than average, against GOR Mahia defence, which lets in 21% fewer than average: 1.03 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• GOR Mahia attack scores 34% more than average, against Homeboyz defence, which lets in 3% fewer than average: 1.21 goals (an average side here: 0.93)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Homeboyz 0.95, GOR Mahia 1.23.

Ratings from 70 matches for Homeboyz and 71 for GOR Mahia, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• GOR Mahia score 1.2 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Homeboyz score 1.5 a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
• GOR Mahia have kept 5 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.4%
2. 0–1 12.9%
3. 0–0 12.5%
4. 1–0 9.3%
5. 0–2 8.6%
6. 1–2 8.3%
7. 2–1 6.2%
8. 2–0 5.1%