APS Bomet vs 3K result

Goals and cards

1. 10' Goal R. Kipkemoi APS Bomet
2. 29' Goal B. Bunyaga APS Bomet
3. 75' Goal T. Asiku APS Bomet

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects APS Bomet to score about 0.3 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 639 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (15%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• APS Bomet is new to this competition: rated from 37 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
• 3K is new to this competition: rated from 3 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• APS Bomet attack scores about the average, against 3K defence, which lets in 7% more than average: 1.14 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• 3K attack scores about the average, against APS Bomet defence, which lets in 4% fewer than average: 0.87 goals (an average side here: 0.93)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on APS Bomet 1.14, 3K 0.86.

Ratings from 37 matches for APS Bomet and 3 for 3K, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Both teams have scored in 3 of APS Bomet’s last 10.
• APS Bomet have kept 5 clean sheets in 10.
• APS Bomet score 0.9 a game — 37th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 14.9%
2. 1–1 14.6%
3. 1–0 14.4%
4. 0–1 10.1%
5. 2–0 8.8%
6. 2–1 7.7%
7. 1–2 5.6%
8. 0–2 5.0%