Italy vs Türkiye match stats & report
3–1 Full time
Italy beat Türkiye 3–1 in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 4) on 5 October 2026. Türkiye had 55% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Italy 69%, the draw 19% and Türkiye 11%.
Italy vs Türkiye match statistics
- 45% Ball possession 55%
- 15 Total shots 14
- 6 Shots on target 5
- 2 Shots off target 5
- 7 Blocked shots 4
- 12 Shots inside the box 7
- 3 Corners 9
- 11 Fouls 9
- 5 Offsides 0
- 2 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 449 Passes 554
- 4 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 26' Goal Gianluca Scamacca Italy
- 42' Yellow card Gianluca Scamacca Italy
- 47' Yellow card M. Ruggeri Italy
- 55' Yellow card Z. Çelik Türkiye
- 61' Goal Aral Şimşir (assist Eren Elmalı) Türkiye
- 64' Goal R. Calafiori (assist N. Barella) Italy
- 81' Yellow card Abdülkerim Bardakcı Türkiye
- 87' Goal F. Esposito (assist A. Romano) Italy
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 69%Italy fair odds 1.44
- 19%Draw fair odds 5.17
- 11%Türkiye fair odds 8.90
Most likely score 2-0 (10.8%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.42 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 23% | 4.30 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5% | 20.70 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15% | 6.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.74 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score: No | 45% | 2.20 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.9
Italy 5.5 · Türkiye 3.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 7.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 8.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 9.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 10.5 | 29% | 71% |
Expected cards: 3.9
Italy 1.7 · Türkiye 2.2
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 4.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 5.5 | 20% | 80% |
Expected shots on target: 8.6
Italy 5.2 · Türkiye 3.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 7.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 8.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 9.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 10.5 | 26% | 74% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4556 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 10.8%
- 2–1 9.6%
- 1–1 9.1%
- 3–0 8.5%
- 1–0 8.0%
- 3–1 7.6%
- 4–0 5.1%
- 0–0 4.8%
Team news & lineups
Italy
Bench N. Cambiaghi , R. Calafiori , Marco Carnesecchi , F. Esposito , S. Esposito , N. Fagioli , D. Frattesi , S. Inacio , M. Kayode , G. Scalvini , S. Tonali , G. Vicario
Türkiye
Bench E. Topçu , Demir Ege Tıknaz , Muhammed Şengezer , M. Kabasakal , Deniz Gül , I. Fakili , Mustafa Eskihellaç , Bartuğ Elmaz , M. Demiral , A. Bayındır , K. Akturkoglu , Oğuz Aydın
Form guide
Italy at home
3–0–2 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 5
- Corners
- 5.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.0 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Türkiye away
3–1–3 in 7 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 7
- Corners
- 6.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.7 per game
8% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 7 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Italy vs Türkiye head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Türkiye v Italy | 1–4 | |
| Italy v Türkiye | 0–0 | |
| Türkiye v Italy | 2–3 | |
| Türkiye v Italy | 0–3 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 48% | 2.09 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 89% | 1.13 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 89% | 1.13 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 43% | 2.35 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 31% | 3.27 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 22% | 4.46 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 31% | 3.27 |
| Home/Away double chance | 81% | 1.24 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 52% | 1.92 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 16.30 |
| Home clean sheet | 41% | 2.44 |
| Away clean sheet | 9% | 10.84 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 11% | 8.90 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 4% | 26.25 |