Azerbaijan vs Lithuania match stats & report
1–0 Full time
Azerbaijan stats & fixtures · Lithuania stats & fixtures
Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1–0 in the UEFA Nations League (League D - 4) on 4 October 2026. Lithuania had 62% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Azerbaijan 49%, the draw 30% and Lithuania 21%.
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania match statistics
- 38% Ball possession 62%
- 13 Total shots 13
- 7 Shots on target 3
- 4 Shots off target 4
- 2 Blocked shots 6
- 7 Shots inside the box 7
- 2 Corners 5
- 14 Fouls 10
- 1 Offsides 1
- 3 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 1
- 327 Passes 516
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 6
Goals and cards
- 25' Goal A. Xaybulayev (assist T. Bayramov) Azerbaijan
- 33' Yellow card A. Xaybulayev Azerbaijan
- 43' Yellow card M. Vorobjovas Lithuania
- 51' Yellow card R. Abbasov Azerbaijan
- 54' Yellow card Artur Dolznikov Lithuania
- 57' Yellow card Vüsal İsgändärli Azerbaijan
- 90+2' Yellow card E. Bədəlov Azerbaijan
- 90+7' Yellow card E. Jankauskas Lithuania
- 90+7' Red card A. Kučys Lithuania
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 49%Azerbaijan fair odds 2.04
- 30%Draw fair odds 3.28
- 21%Lithuania fair odds 4.86
Most likely score 1-1 (14.1%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 5.27 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 8% | 12.88 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 12% | 8.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33% | 3.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| Both teams to score: No | 56% | 1.80 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.5
Azerbaijan 5.1 · Lithuania 3.4
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 7.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 8.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 9.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 10.5 | 25% | 75% |
Expected cards: 4.2
Azerbaijan 2.2 · Lithuania 2.0
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 4.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 5.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 6.5 | 14% | 86% |
Expected shots on target: 8.0
Azerbaijan 4.7 · Lithuania 3.3
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 7.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 8.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 9.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 10.5 | 20% | 80% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4540 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.1%
- 1–0 13.3%
- 0–0 12.2%
- 2–0 10.5%
- 2–1 8.8%
- 0–1 7.2%
- 1–2 5.2%
- 3–0 5.0%
Team news & lineups
Azerbaijan
Bench E. Bədəlov , R. Abdullazadə , A. Bayramov , R. Dadashov , Vüsal İsgändärli , A. Krivotsyuk , E. Mahmudov , R. Mirzəmmədov , A. Nuriyev , E. Safarov , M. Qurbanly , C. Nuriyev
Lithuania
Bench E. Jankauskas , K. Kažukolovas , Motiejus Burba , Lukas Michelbrink , L. Paukste , M. Ruzgis , D. Šluta , F. Steponavičius , A. Tutyškinas , I. Venckus , D. Bartkus , D. Malžinskas
Form guide
Azerbaijan at home
4–1–3 in 8 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 8
- Corners
- 4.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.6 per game
18% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 8 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Lithuania away
2–0–3 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 1.0 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 5
- Corners
- 4.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.5 per game
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Lithuania v Azerbaijan | 1–1 | |
| Azerbaijan v Lithuania | 0–0 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 25% | 4.01 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 17% | 5.90 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 41% | 2.43 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.04 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 79% | 1.26 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 79% | 1.26 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 93% | 1.08 |
| Home clean sheet | 43% | 2.30 |
| Home/Away double chance | 70% | 1.44 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 57% | 1.77 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 75% | 1.33 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 20% | 4.91 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 21% | 4.86 |
| Away clean sheet | 24% | 4.10 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 7% | 14.19 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 19.03 |