Estonia vs Luxembourg match stats & report
1–0 Full time
Estonia stats & fixtures · Luxembourg stats & fixtures
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0 in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 3) on 3 October 2026. Luxembourg had 54% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Estonia 33%, the draw 33% and Luxembourg 34%.
Estonia vs Luxembourg match statistics
- 46% Ball possession 54%
- 14 Total shots 8
- 9 Shots on target 2
- 1 Shots off target 4
- 4 Blocked shots 2
- 10 Shots inside the box 4
- 7 Corners 3
- 13 Fouls 12
- 4 Offsides 2
- 3 Yellow cards 6
- 0 Red cards 0
- 446 Passes 529
- 2 Goalkeeper saves 8
Goals and cards
- 5' Goal R. Peetson Estonia
- 29' Yellow card E. Mahmutović Luxembourg
- 43' Yellow card Estonia
- 68' Yellow card O. Natami Luxembourg
- 73' Yellow card M. Kuusk Estonia
- 78' Yellow card Vahid Selimović Luxembourg
- 82' Yellow card K. Mets Estonia
- 84' Yellow card L. Barreiro Luxembourg
- 85' Yellow card E. Džogović Luxembourg
- 87' Yellow card M. Olesen Luxembourg
- 88' Yellow card M. Poom Estonia
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 33%Estonia fair odds 3.07
- 33%Draw fair odds 3.02
- 34%Luxembourg fair odds 2.92
Most likely score 1-1 (15.2%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 86% | 1.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.78 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 5.96 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 7% | 15.26 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 14% | 7.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| Both teams to score: No | 55% | 1.81 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.1
Estonia 4.1 · Luxembourg 4.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 7.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 8.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 9.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 10.5 | 20% | 80% |
Expected cards: 4.2
Estonia 2.0 · Luxembourg 2.1
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 4.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 5.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 6.5 | 14% | 86% |
Expected shots on target: 7.5
Estonia 3.4 · Luxembourg 4.1
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 6.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 7.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 8.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 9.5 | 24% | 76% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4525 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 15.2%
- 0–0 13.6%
- 0–1 11.1%
- 1–0 10.7%
- 1–2 7.3%
- 2–1 7.1%
- 0–2 6.9%
- 2–0 6.5%
Team news & lineups
Estonia
Bench M. Ainsalu , K. Hein , F. Liivak , Karel Mustmaa , R. Saarma , J. Saliste , M. Skvortsov , M. Soomets , A. Tamm , J. Tamm , E. Tõugjas , K. Vallner
Luxembourg
Bench E. Džogović , E. Veiga , S. Ikene , H. Kadamani , T. Kips , M. Martins , M. Olesen , T. Pereira Cardoso , T. Rupil , S. Thill , L. Barreiro , M. Goncalves
Form guide
Estonia at home
1–2–1 in 4 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 4
- Corners
- 3.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.3 per game
Based on 4 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Luxembourg away
3–0–4 in 7 matches
- Scored
- 0.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 7
- Corners
- 2.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.8 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 7 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 28% | 3.54 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 33% | 3.07 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 66% | 1.52 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 66% | 1.52 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 65% | 1.54 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 66% | 1.51 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 86% | 1.17 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 29% | 3.39 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 67% | 1.48 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 67% | 1.48 |
| Home/Away double chance | 67% | 1.50 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 13% | 7.50 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 34% | 2.92 |
| Home clean sheet | 34% | 2.96 |
| Away clean sheet | 35% | 2.86 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 14% | 6.96 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 11.14 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 10% | 10.39 |