Iceland vs Bulgaria match stats & report
3–0 Full time
Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0 in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 3) on 3 October 2026. Iceland had 51% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Iceland 64%, the draw 23% and Bulgaria 13%.
Iceland vs Bulgaria match statistics
- 51% Ball possession 49%
- 10 Total shots 10
- 6 Shots on target 3
- 2 Shots off target 6
- 2 Blocked shots 1
- 7 Shots inside the box 7
- 9 Corners 1
- 11 Fouls 14
- 1 Offsides 1
- 2 Yellow cards 4
- 0 Red cards 0
- 422 Passes 420
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 4' Yellow card H. Magnússon Iceland
- 10' Yellow card L. Petkov Bulgaria
- 27' Yellow card D. Velkovski Bulgaria
- 32' Yellow card M. Ellertsson Iceland
- 37' Goal O. Oskarsson (assist H. Haraldsson) Iceland
- 59' Yellow card A. Iliev Bulgaria
- 60' Goal O. Oskarsson (assist M. Anderson) Iceland
- 80' Yellow card M. Petkov Bulgaria
- 84' Penalty missed O. Oskarsson Iceland
- 90' Goal M. Ellertsson (assist O. Oskarsson) Iceland
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 64%Iceland fair odds 1.55
- 23%Draw fair odds 4.38
- 13%Bulgaria fair odds 7.89
Most likely score 2-0 (12.2%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.22 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.48 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7% | 13.78 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| Both teams to score: No | 51% | 1.96 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.6
Iceland 5.1 · Bulgaria 3.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 7.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 8.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 9.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 10.5 | 26% | 74% |
Expected cards: 4.1
Iceland 2.0 · Bulgaria 2.2
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 4.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 5.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 6.5 | 13% | 87% |
Expected shots on target: 7.9
Iceland 5.0 · Bulgaria 2.9
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 6.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 7.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 8.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 9.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4525 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 12.2%
- 1–1 10.9%
- 1–0 10.8%
- 2–1 9.7%
- 3–0 8.2%
- 0–0 7.3%
- 3–1 6.5%
- 4–0 4.1%
Team news & lineups
Iceland
Bench D. L. Gretarsson , A. Einarsson , A. Guðjohnsen , D. Guðjohnsen , Þ. Helgason , V. Pálsson , Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson , G. Sigurðsson , S. Þórðarson , Í. Þorvaldsson , Logi Tomasson , B. Willumsson
Bulgaria
Bench A. Bozhev , E. Tsenov , Y. Stoyanov , K. Stoyanov , H. Petrov , M. Petkov , V. Nikolov , D. Mitov , A. Hristov , Z. Dimitrov , Kristiyan Balov , Petko Panayotov
Form guide
Iceland at home
1–2–1 in 4 matches
- Scored
- 2.3 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 4
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.3 per game
Based on 4 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Bulgaria away
3–1–3 in 7 matches
- Scored
- 2.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 7
- Corners
- 2.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.5 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 7 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 36% | 2.82 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 36% | 2.82 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 59% | 1.69 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 55% | 1.82 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 19% | 5.24 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 64% | 1.55 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 41% | 2.44 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 33% | 3.06 |
| Home/Away double chance | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home clean sheet | 45% | 2.22 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 13% | 7.89 |
| Away clean sheet | 13% | 7.49 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 4% | 24.44 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 21.14 |