Guinea vs Kenya match stats & report
1–0 Full time
Guinea beat Kenya 1–0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (Group Stage - 2) on 1 October 2026. Guinea had 51% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Guinea 55%, the draw 27% and Kenya 18%.
Guinea vs Kenya match statistics
- 51% Ball possession 49%
- 9 Total shots 5
- 3 Shots on target 2
- 3 Shots off target 2
- 3 Blocked shots 1
- 6 Shots inside the box 3
- 5 Corners 2
- 10 Fouls 17
- 3 Offsides 1
- 1 Yellow cards 1
- 0 Red cards 0
- 349 Passes 332
- 2 Goalkeeper saves 2
Goals and cards
- 16' Yellow card Kenya
- 32' Goal S. Guirassy Guinea
- 64' Yellow card M. Camara Guinea
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 55%Guinea fair odds 1.81
- 27%Draw fair odds 3.74
- 18%Kenya fair odds 5.60
Most likely score 1-1 (12.8%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.79 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.18 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 11.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25% | 3.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score: No | 50% | 1.99 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.3
Guinea 4.2 · Kenya 4.1
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 7.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 8.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 9.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 10.5 | 23% | 77% |
Expected cards: 3.5
Guinea 1.6 · Kenya 1.9
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 4.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 5.5 | 15% | 85% |
Expected shots on target: 8.0
Guinea 4.7 · Kenya 3.2
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 6.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 7.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 8.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 9.5 | 29% | 71% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4488 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.8%
- 1–0 11.3%
- 2–0 10.9%
- 2–1 9.7%
- 0–0 8.9%
- 3–0 6.2%
- 3–1 5.5%
- 0–1 5.1%
Team news & lineups
Guinea
Bench M. Sylla , S. Sow , M. Konaté , M. Keita , mory keita, L. Diaby-Fadiga , O. Camara , A. Camara , Ibrahima Sory Bangoura , mohamed bangoura, Mussa Diallo
Kenya
Bench B. Bwire, O. Khamis, Javan Omondi Ochieng, M. Omondi, O. S. Wilson , T. Ouma , Farouk Shikalo, Shariff Sirengo, A. Wanjala , R. Ogam , H. Wesonga, V. Harper
Form guide
Guinea at home
2–3–1 in 6 matches
- Scored
- 1.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 6
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.0 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 6 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Kenya away
2–1–3 in 6 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 2.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 6
- Corners
- 2.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.0 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 6 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 22% | 4.49 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 51% | 1.96 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 25% | 4.07 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 45% | 2.24 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 18% | 5.60 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 68% | 1.46 |
| Home/Away double chance | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 32% | 3.16 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 16.48 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 55% | 1.81 |
| Away clean sheet | 18% | 5.54 |
| Home clean sheet | 41% | 2.43 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 94% | 1.07 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 6% | 15.95 |