Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows prediction, stats & H2H
Mamelodi Sundowns stats & fixtures · Golden Arrows stats & fixtures
Mamelodi Sundowns take on Golden Arrows in the Carling Knockout (Quarter-finals) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Mamelodi Sundowns favourites at 76%, with the draw at 18%. The likeliest score is 2–0, at 15.6%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 38%.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows prediction
The Ghost: over 0.5 goals, 93%
- 76%Mamelodi Sundowns fair odds 1.32
- 18%Draw fair odds 5.53
- 6%Golden Arrows fair odds 15.81
Most likely score 2-0 (15.6%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Mamelodi Sundowns to score about 1.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 29% in this competition.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 1494 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Mamelodi Sundowns
Attack 2.04 · Defence 0.65
Last five: WWDDW, scored 10, conceded 3
Golden Arrows
Attack 1.06 · Defence 0.80
Last five: LWLDD, scored 5, conceded 3
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.29× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Mamelodi Sundowns won 3, 1 drawn, Golden Arrows won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (16%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Golden Arrows has a new coach, M. Ncikazi, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Mamelodi Sundowns attack scores 104% more than average, against Golden Arrows defence, which lets in 20% fewer than average: 2.09 goals (an average side here: 1.29)
- Golden Arrows attack scores 6% more than average, against Mamelodi Sundowns defence, which lets in 35% fewer than average: 0.70 goals (an average side here: 1.00)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Mamelodi Sundowns 2.25, Golden Arrows 0.54.
Ratings from 106 matches for Mamelodi Sundowns and 97 for Golden Arrows, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.2 a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
- Mamelodi Sundowns win 6.2 corners a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
- Golden Arrows win 4.8 corners a game — 81st percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.27 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.63 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7% | 14.07 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 38% | 2.62 |
| Both teams to score: No | 62% | 1.62 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.8
Mamelodi Sundowns 4.6 · Golden Arrows 4.2
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 7.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 8.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 9.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 10.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (225 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 15.6%
- 1–0 12.9%
- 3–0 11.7%
- 1–1 8.4%
- 2–1 8.4%
- 0–0 7.1%
- 4–0 6.6%
- 3–1 6.3%
Team news & lineups
Mamelodi Sundowns
No lineup published yet.
Golden Arrows
- 18 S. Dion Attacker
- 24 N. Dlamini Midfielder
- 41 N. Zwane Midfielder
- 3 K. Shezi Defender
- 25 A. Maxwele Midfielder
- 36 P. Kumalo Attacker
- 38 N. Mabaso Defender
- 26 E. Agnikoi Defender
- 4 A. Jiyane Defender
- 29 S. Sithole Attacker
- 20 O. Maluleke Defender
Form guide
Mamelodi Sundowns at home
7–2–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.2 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 6.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 7.8 per game
30% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Golden Arrows away
4–4–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 4.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.1 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Arrows v Mamelodi Sundowns | 1–2 | |
| Golden Arrows v Mamelodi Sundowns | 2–3 | |
| Mamelodi Sundowns v Golden Arrows | 0–1 | |
| Mamelodi Sundowns v Golden Arrows | 2–1 | |
| Golden Arrows v Mamelodi Sundowns | 1–0 | |
| Golden Arrows v Mamelodi Sundowns | 1–1 |
The full Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 94% | 1.07 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 94% | 1.07 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Home/Away double chance | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 66% | 1.52 |
| Home clean sheet | 58% | 1.71 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 52% | 1.91 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 48% | 2.10 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 42% | 2.41 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 24% | 4.10 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.10 |
| Away clean sheet | 11% | 9.51 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 10% | 9.83 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 6% | 15.81 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 2% | 57.53 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 2% | 64.64 |