Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction & stats
Real Madrid stats & fixtures · RB Leipzig stats & fixtures
Real Madrid take on RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 3) on 21 October 2026. The Ghost makes Real Madrid favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16%. The likeliest score is 2–1, at 8.8%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 60%.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig prediction
- 74%Real Madrid fair odds 1.35
- 16%Draw fair odds 6.20
- 10%RB Leipzig fair odds 10.02
Most likely score 2-1 (8.8%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 33% | 2.99 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3% | 33.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10% | 10.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.75 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: No | 40% | 2.53 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–1 8.8%
- 2–0 8.7%
- 3–1 8.2%
- 3–0 8.1%
- 1–1 7.0%
- 4–1 5.7%
- 4–0 5.7%
- 1–0 5.4%
Team news & lineups
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois Goalkeeper
- 16 I. Konaté Defender
- 8 F. Valverde Midfielder
- 10 Kylian Mbappé Attacker
- 5 J. Bellingham Midfielder
- 14 A. Tchouameni Midfielder
- 25 Y. Diomande Midfielder
- 7 Vinicius Junior Midfielder
- 17 Marc Cucurella Defender
- 22 A. Rüdiger Defender
- 24 D. Dumfries Defender
RB Leipzig
- 7 A. Nusa Midfielder
- 21 N. El Aynaoui Midfielder
- 22 D. Raum Defender
- 4 W. Orbán Defender
- 26 M. Vandevoordt Goalkeeper
- 6 E. Banzuzi Midfielder
- 28 C. Nkunku Midfielder
- 23 C. Lukeba Defender
- 10 B. Gruda Midfielder
- 17 R. Baku Defender
- 40 Romulo Cardoso Attacker
Form guide
Real Madrid at home
9–1–0 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.9 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 6.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 8.1 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
RB Leipzig away
1–0–9 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 3.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- 4.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.5 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid v RB Leipzig | 1–1 | |
| RB Leipzig v Real Madrid | 0–1 | |
| RB Leipzig v Real Madrid | 3–2 | |
| Real Madrid v RB Leipzig | 2–0 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home/Away double chance | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 74% | 1.35 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 55% | 1.83 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 53% | 1.88 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 45% | 2.20 |
| Home clean sheet | 37% | 2.74 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 27% | 3.75 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 26% | 3.83 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 26% | 3.83 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 10% | 10.02 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 8% | 12.25 |
| Away clean sheet | 6% | 16.57 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 4% | 28.17 |