Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction & stats

Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 UTC

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3 · Allianz Arena, Munich

Bayern München stats & fixtures · Arsenal stats & fixtures

Bayern München take on Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 3) on 21 October 2026. The Ghost makes Bayern München favourites at 38%, with the draw at 25%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 10.3%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 70%.

Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction

38%Bayern München fair odds 2.61
25%Draw fair odds 4.08
37%Arsenal fair odds 2.69

Most likely score 1-1 (10.3%)

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Market	Ghost	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96%	1.04
Over 1.5 goals	88%	1.14
Over 2.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.12
Over 4.5 goals	28%	3.55
Under 0.5 goals	4%	24.44
Under 1.5 goals	12%	8.32
Under 2.5 goals	31%	3.18
Under 3.5 goals	53%	1.89
Under 4.5 goals	72%	1.39
Both teams to score: Yes	70%	1.43
Both teams to score: No	30%	3.33

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.4

Bayern München 4.7 · Arsenal 4.7

Total corners	Over	Under
7.5	70%	30%
8.5	58%	42%
9.5	46%	54%
10.5	35%	65%
11.5	25%	75%

Expected cards: 3.7

Bayern München 1.6 · Arsenal 2.0

Total cards	Over	Under
1.5	87%	13%
2.5	70%	30%
3.5	50%	50%
4.5	31%	69%
5.5	17%	83%

Expected shots on target: 10.0

Bayern München 5.3 · Arsenal 4.7

Total shots on target	Over	Under
8.5	65%	35%
9.5	54%	46%
10.5	42%	58%
11.5	31%	69%
12.5	23%	77%

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (223 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1–1 10.3%
2–1 8.1%
1–2 8.0%
2–2 7.1%
3–1 4.8%
1–3 4.7%
2–0 4.6%
0–2 4.5%

Team news & lineups

Bayern München

Probable — not confirmed

9 H. Kane Attacker
17 M. Olise Midfielder
14 L. Díaz Midfielder
6 J. Kimmich Midfielder
2 D. Upamecano Defender
45 A. Pavlović Midfielder
3 Kim Min-Jae Defender
11 N. Brown Defender
40 J. Urbig Goalkeeper
27 K. Laimer Defender
34 I. Saibari Midfielder

Arsenal

Probable — not confirmed

41 D. Rice Midfielder
6 Gabriel Magalhães Defender
15 E. Konsa Defender
1 David Raya Goalkeeper
49 M. Lewis-Skelly Midfielder
8 M. Ødegaard Midfielder
7 B. Saka Midfielder
29 K. Havertz Attacker
33 R. Calafiori Defender
20 N. Madueke Midfielder
39 Bruno Guimaraes Midfielder

Form guide

Bayern München at home

8–2–0 in 10 matches

Scored: 4.1 per game
Conceded: 1.1 per game
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Corners: 8.1 per game
Shots on target: 10.3 per game

24% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Arsenal away

6–2–2 in 10 matches

Scored: 1.4 per game
Conceded: 0.9 per game
Clean sheets: 4 / 10
Corners: 3.8 per game
Shots on target: 3.8 per game

13% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Bayern München vs Arsenal head-to-head

Date	Match	Score
26 Nov 25	Arsenal v Bayern München	3–1
17 Apr 24	Bayern München v Arsenal	1–0
9 Apr 24	Arsenal v Bayern München	2–2

Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.

The full Bayern München vs Arsenal head-to-head record

Double chance, handicap & team goals

Market	Ghost	Fair odds
Home Over 0.5 team goals	83%	1.20
Away Over 0.5 team goals	83%	1.21
Home +1.5 handicap	80%	1.25
Away +1.5 handicap	79%	1.26
Home/Away double chance	75%	1.32
Home +0.5 handicap	63%	1.59
Home/Draw double chance	63%	1.59
Draw/Away double chance	62%	1.62
Away +0.5 handicap	62%	1.62
Home Over 1.5 team goals	53%	1.88
Away Over 1.5 team goals	52%	1.91
Home -0.5 handicap	38%	2.61
Away -0.5 handicap	37%	2.69
Home Over 2.5 team goals	26%	3.78
Away Over 2.5 team goals	26%	3.89
Home -1.5 handicap	21%	4.84
Away -1.5 handicap	20%	5.04
Home clean sheet	17%	5.78
Away clean sheet	17%	5.94