Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction & stats

Tue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3 · Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool stats & fixtures · Villarreal stats & fixtures

Liverpool take on Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 3) on 20 October 2026. The Ghost makes Liverpool favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16%. The likeliest score is 2–1, at 8.7%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 61%.

Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction

74%Liverpool fair odds 1.34
16%Draw fair odds 6.30
10%Villarreal fair odds 10.23

Most likely score 2-1 (8.7%)

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Market	Ghost	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97%	1.03
Over 1.5 goals	90%	1.11
Over 2.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 3.5 goals	54%	1.86
Over 4.5 goals	34%	2.93
Under 0.5 goals	3%	34.17
Under 1.5 goals	10%	10.48
Under 2.5 goals	26%	3.83
Under 3.5 goals	46%	2.16
Under 4.5 goals	66%	1.52
Both teams to score: Yes	61%	1.65
Both teams to score: No	39%	2.54

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.6

Liverpool 6.2 · Villarreal 3.3

Total corners	Over	Under
7.5	72%	28%
8.5	60%	40%
9.5	48%	52%
10.5	37%	63%
11.5	27%	73%

Expected cards: 3.4

Liverpool 1.3 · Villarreal 2.1

Total cards	Over	Under
1.5	85%	15%
2.5	66%	34%
3.5	45%	55%
4.5	27%	73%
5.5	14%	86%

Expected shots on target: 10.9

Liverpool 8.3 · Villarreal 2.6

Total shots on target	Over	Under
8.5	74%	26%
9.5	63%	37%
10.5	52%	48%
11.5	41%	59%
12.5	31%	69%

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (223 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

2–1 8.7%
2–0 8.6%
3–1 8.2%
3–0 8.1%
1–1 6.9%
4–1 5.8%
4–0 5.8%
1–0 5.3%

Team news & lineups

Liverpool

Probable — not confirmed

29 B. Barcola Midfielder
7 F. Wirtz Midfielder
1 Alisson Becker Goalkeeper
33 R. Araújo Defender
5 J. Jacquet Defender
4 V. van Dijk Defender
6 M. Kerkez Defender
10 A. Mac Allister Midfielder
8 D. Szoboszlai Midfielder
9 A. Isak Attacker
23 Víctor Muñoz Midfielder

Villarreal

Probable — not confirmed

10 Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
14 S. Comesana Midfielder
25 P. Gulacsi Goalkeeper
22 Ayoze Pérez Attacker
11 Ilias Akhomach Midfielder
3 A. Freeman Defender
23 Sergi Cardona Defender
6 Pau Navarro Defender
12 Renato Veiga Defender
18 P. Gueye Midfielder
8 J. Foyth Midfielder

Out and doubtful

C. Bradley Liverpool Out — Knee Injury
T. Buchanan Villarreal Out — Muscle Injury
F. Chiesa Liverpool Out — Off the roster
G. Leoni Liverpool Out — Knee Injury
H. Ekitike Liverpool Out — Achilles Tendon Injury
W. Endo Liverpool Out — Off the roster
N. Pepe Villarreal Out — Eye injury
J. Frimpong Liverpool Doubtful — Injury

Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.

Form guide

Liverpool at home

2–5–3 in 10 matches

Scored: 1.1 per game
Conceded: 1.4 per game
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Corners: 6.5 per game
Shots on target: 4.6 per game

18% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Villarreal away

3–2–5 in 10 matches

Scored: 1.4 per game
Conceded: 1.6 per game
Clean sheets: 0 / 10
Corners: 7.0 per game
Shots on target: 5.4 per game

29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Double chance, handicap & team goals

Market	Ghost	Fair odds
Home Over 2.5 team goals	54%	1.85
Home -1.5 handicap	55%	1.81
Home Over 1.5 team goals	78%	1.29
Home -0.5 handicap	74%	1.34
Home/Draw double chance	90%	1.11
Home/Away double chance	84%	1.19
Home +0.5 handicap	90%	1.11
Home Over 0.5 team goals	94%	1.06
Home +1.5 handicap	97%	1.04
Away Over 0.5 team goals	64%	1.57
Away Over 1.5 team goals	27%	3.74
Home clean sheet	36%	2.74
Away Over 2.5 team goals	8%	12.23
Away +1.5 handicap	45%	2.23
Away +0.5 handicap	26%	3.90
Draw/Away double chance	26%	3.90
Away -0.5 handicap	10%	10.23
Away clean sheet	6%	17.11
Away -1.5 handicap	3%	28.80