AS Roma vs Real Madrid match stats & report
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AS Roma stats & fixtures · Real Madrid stats & fixtures
AS Roma lost to Real Madrid 3–4 in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 2) on 14 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.51–1.89. AS Roma had 54% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave AS Roma 31%, the draw 27% and Real Madrid 42%.
AS Roma vs Real Madrid match statistics
- 54% Ball possession 46%
- 1.51 Expected goals (xG) 1.89
- 14 Total shots 16
- 7 Shots on target 8
- 4 Shots off target 8
- 3 Blocked shots 0
- 9 Shots inside the box 11
- 5 Corners 9
- 15 Fouls 8
- 1 Offsides 1
- 3 Yellow cards 1
- 0 Red cards 0
- 546 Passes 459
- 4 Goalkeeper saves 4
Goals and cards
- 20' Goal M. de Roon (assist M. Soulé) AS Roma
- 25' Goal Kylian Mbappé (assist Y. Diomande) Real Madrid
- 51' Goal D. Malen (assist Rodrigo Mora) AS Roma
- 57' Goal D. Malen (assist M. Soulé) AS Roma
- 60' Yellow card G. Mancini AS Roma
- 69' Yellow card Wesley AS Roma
- 83' Goal Carlos Espí Real Madrid
- 85' Goal Endrick (assist A. Guler) Real Madrid
- 89' Yellow card L. Pellegrini AS Roma
- 90' Goal A. Rüdiger (assist A. Guler) Real Madrid
- 90+5' Yellow card Álvaro Fernández Real Madrid
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 31%AS Roma fair odds 3.24
- 27%Draw fair odds 3.64
- 42%Real Madrid fair odds 2.40
Most likely score 1-1 (12.9%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.98 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17% | 5.82 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7% | 14.56 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 5.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.50 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| Both teams to score: No | 40% | 2.51 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.9%
- 1–2 9.0%
- 2–1 7.6%
- 0–1 7.0%
- 0–0 6.9%
- 0–2 6.7%
- 2–2 6.0%
- 1–0 5.7%
Team news & lineups
AS Roma
Bench E. Lulli , Rodrigo Mora , L. Pellegrini , N. Pisilli , D. Rensch , D. Vásquez , L. Balerdi , S. Castro , G. De Marzi , D. Ghilardi , K. Koulierakis
Real Madrid
Bench B. Silva , Álvaro Fernández , Brahim Díaz , Endrick , Carlos Espí , A. Guler , D. Huijsen , A. Lunin , Sergio Mestre , T. Pitarch , T. Alexander-Arnold , E. Camavinga
Out and doubtful
- Eder Militao Real Madrid Out — Hamstring Injury
- F. Mendy Real Madrid Out — Hip Injury
- B. Cristante AS Roma Out — Knee Injury
- M. Bah AS Roma Out — Knee Injury
- M. Svilar AS Roma Out — Toe Injury
- R. Asencio Real Madrid Out — Broken Leg
- Rodrygo Real Madrid Out — Knee Injury
- K. Koulierakis AS Roma Doubtful — Knock
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
AS Roma at home
7–2–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.4 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- Corners
- 6.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.2 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Real Madrid away
7–0–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 6.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.7 per game
35% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home clean sheet | 21% | 4.86 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 58% | 1.71 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 58% | 1.71 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 31% | 3.24 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 14% | 7.00 |
| Away clean sheet | 26% | 3.82 |
| Home/Away double chance | 73% | 1.38 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 86% | 1.17 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 69% | 1.45 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 39% | 2.58 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 79% | 1.26 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 42% | 2.40 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 15% | 6.58 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 47% | 2.13 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 22% | 4.59 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 21% | 4.72 |