Alaves vs Malaga prediction & stats
Alaves take on Malaga in La Liga on 23 October 2026. The Ghost makes Alaves favourites at 56%, with the draw at 28%. The likeliest score is 1–0, at 13.5%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 46%.
Alaves vs Malaga prediction
- 56%Alaves fair odds 1.80
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.61
- 17%Malaga fair odds 5.96
Most likely score 1-0 (13.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.58 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 10.59 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10% | 9.56 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30% | 3.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 46% | 2.20 |
| Both teams to score: No | 54% | 1.84 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.9
Alaves 4.9 · Malaga 5.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 8.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 9.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 10.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 11.5 | 30% | 70% |
Expected cards: 4.8
Alaves 2.3 · Malaga 2.5
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 4.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 5.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 6.5 | 21% | 79% |
Expected shots on target: 8.6
Alaves 5.9 · Malaga 2.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 7.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 8.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 9.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 10.5 | 26% | 74% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (382 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–0 13.5%
- 1–1 13.0%
- 2–0 11.7%
- 0–0 10.5%
- 2–1 9.7%
- 3–0 6.0%
- 0–1 5.6%
- 3–1 5.0%
Team news & lineups
Alaves
- 21 A. Rebbach Defender
- 15 L. Boyé Attacker
- 19 Pablo Ibáñez Midfielder
- 1 Sivera Goalkeeper
- 14 N. Tenaglia Defender
- 17 Jonny Defender
- 8 Antonio Blanco Midfielder
- 7 A. Perez Defender
- 2 N. Valentini Defender
- 16 V. Koski Defender
- 4 Denis Suárez Midfielder
Malaga
- 10 David Larrubia Midfielder
- 1 Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
- 15 Ángel Recio Defender
- 31 Rafita Defender
- 22 Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
- 9 Chupe Attacker
- 11 Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
- 18 Pablo Martínez Midfielder
- 14 Rafa Rodríguez Midfielder
- 12 J. Salinas Defender
- 3 Puga Defender
Form guide
Alaves at home
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 4.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.1 per game
22% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Malaga away
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 4.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.4 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 94% | 1.06 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 83% | 1.20 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 83% | 1.20 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.38 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 70% | 1.43 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 56% | 1.80 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 55% | 1.82 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 48% | 2.10 |
| Home clean sheet | 45% | 2.22 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 44% | 2.25 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 30% | 3.34 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 21% | 4.70 |
| Away clean sheet | 20% | 5.02 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 19% | 5.26 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 17% | 5.96 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 6% | 17.59 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 21.02 |